Threats of El Nino loom
LIVINGSTONE MARUFU
Zimbabwe could experience a devastating El Nino in the 2023/24 summer cropping season, the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) warned yesterday.
It also comes at a time when global warming is influencing the voracity of both the El Nio and La Nia phenomena, known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, which has been predicted by weather experts around the world to lead to an increase in extreme weather instability.
“Waters in the eastern Pacific are warmer than usual which usually points to El Niño phenomenon and that could supercharge extreme weather,” an official at MSD told Business Times yesterday.
The biggest seed producer in Zimbabwe, Seed Co, is also worried about the potential effects of El Nino, as this could affect seed sales volumes during the coming agricultural season.
“Early weather forecasts are not favourable and we are therefore planning our varietal placement accordingly,” Seed Co CEO, Morgan Nzwere, said.
Local farmers anticipate a reduced output as a result of the increased volatility and greediness of the La Nia and El Nio phenomena brought on by human-induced weather instability, which has increased swings between floods and droughts, extreme heat and cold, and extreme heat and cold, causing exponential damage to crops and farm operations.
“Most of our people around the country depend on rain-fed agriculture hence this climatic instability is always bad for agriculture as we expected reduced production.This will also disrupt global supply chains as most of the countries in the world will be disrupted, causing the sourcing food from alternative markets to be more difficult,” the Zimbabwe National Farmers Union vice president Edward Dune said.
Farmers have been urged to diversify crops by including crops able to tolerate variable climatic conditions, such as cassava and tree crops like avocado, macadamia and litchi.
Interestingly, the threat from El Nino coincides with President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s intention to export maize.
“Cabinet wishes to inform the nation that as at July 9 , 2023,the Grain Marketing Board had in stock a total of 204 084 metric tonnes of maize and 41 464 mt of traditional grains. Millers and stock-feed manufacturers are being allocated 27 000 mt, SILO Foods 16 000 mt per month, and an additional 10 000 mt will be sold to Rwanda.
“The available grain will last 5.6months. This shows that Zimbabwe has sufficient grain to carry it through to the next season,” Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services Minister Monica Mutsvangwa said at a recently in a post-Cabinet briefing.
“Under Summer Crops Marketing,it is being highlighted that a cumulative 49 694 mt comprising 33 008 mt of maize, 9 095 mt of traditional grains, 4 780 mt of soya bean and 2 773 mt of sunflower have been delivered to the GMB as at July 9 ,2023. An additional 300 000 mt of maize will be mobilised to provide cover up to June next year at the current allocation rate of 43 000 mt per month,” she said.
Mutsvangwa said the government has put in place 2023/2024 Summer Plan additional measures to climate-proof production to increase productivity.
“The nation will recall that Cabinet approved the 2023/24 Summer Cropping Plan and State of Preparedness on the 18th of May 2023. The plan seeks to achieve national food, feed,and edible oils self-sufficiency. The national target hectarage for strategic crops is 3 040 000 ha with an expected yield of 3 782 658 metric tonnes (MT).
“ Accordingly , the Cabinet has put in place robust measures encompassing irrigation and agricultural climate-proofing in order to maintain increased production. In line with government priorities in the agricultural sector, the National Enhanced Agriculture Productivity Scheme will be expanded, with more banks contracting increased hectarages,” she said.
