‘Mining, agric sectors to shield Zim from external shocks’

LIVINGSTONE MARUFU

A strong recovery in agriculture, coupled with continued growth in the mining sector, is expected to help cushion Zimbabwe’s economy from external shocks arising from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has disrupted global energy and commodity markets, the Government has said.

Despite increasing global economic pressures, authorities remain optimistic that Zimbabwe will achieve at least 5% economic growth this year.

Despite mounting external pressures, the Government remains confident that the economy will expand by at least 5% this year.

The administration’s optimism comes amid rising oil prices, increasing fertiliser costs and renewed volatility in international financial markets, factors that threaten to heighten pressure on inflation, foreign currency reserves and the balance of payments in the import-dependent economy.

Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services Minister Zhemu Soda said authorities still expect economic growth to be driven by stronger agricultural output following improved rainfall patterns, as well as continued expansion in the mining sector.

“Economic growth is still projected to moderate around 5% in 2026, reflecting anticipated strong agriculture sector recovery and mining sector growth underpinning overall growth of the economy,” Soda said.

The government acknowledged, however, that geopolitical tensions have increased pressure on an import-dependent economy already exposed to swings in fuel and commodity prices.

Commodity markets in the first quarter were marked by renewed volatility as tensions in the Middle East disrupted global energy supply chains, pushing up transport and production costs across multiple sectors.

Dr Soda warned that elevated fertiliser prices, alongside higher shipping and insurance costs, were increasing agricultural input expenses, with potential implications for crop yields and food security.

“Increasing production and transport costs which tend to contribute to rising inflationary pressures are being managed in order to protect jobs, sustain livelihoods and cushion the general citizenry,” Dr Soda said.

Authorities have already scrapped selected taxes on diesel in an attempt to contain inflationary pressures and shield businesses from rising operating costs.

Fiscal performance has remained relatively firm, with revenues projected at US$9.4bn this year against expenditure of US$9bn, reflecting stronger tax collection and tighter expenditure controls.

Inflation has also moderated sharply from the turbulence of 2025. Annual inflation, which climbed above 90% at its peak last year, slowed to 4.1% in January before easing further to 3.8% in February. It edged up to 4.8% in April following the oil price shock linked to the Middle East conflict.

The government argues that the sustained decline demonstrates the effectiveness of its stabilisation measures, although economists caution that Zimbabwe remains vulnerable to external shocks in a highly dollarised economy.

Export performance is expected to remain robust over the medium term, driven by gold, platinum group metals, lithium and tobacco, sectors that continue to anchor the country’s fragile recovery.