Global supply shocks spark Zim food security fears

CLOUDINE MATOLA

Zimbabwe’s food security is coming under renewed pressure from escalating global geopolitical tensions that are disrupting shipping routes and driving fertiliser prices sharply upward, government officials have warned.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development says the unfolding conflict dynamics between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other are rattling global supply chains, with direct consequences for fertiliser availability, crop productivity, and food prices in Zimbabwe.

At the centre of the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor through which a significant share of global fertiliser-related commodities and energy inputs pass.

With reports of heightened naval activity and disrupted shipping following the collapse of peace negotiations, trade flows of ammonia, sulphur, nitrogen-based compounds, and other fertiliser precursors have been severely affected.

As a result, global fertiliser prices are projected to nearly double from 2024 levels, placing Zimbabwe, an importer of both finished fertiliser and raw materials, in a vulnerable position.

The Ministry’s Chief Director for Strategic Planning and Business Development, Clemence Taderera Bwenje, said the country is already feeling the ripple effects.

“So we have seen that the conflict has actually caused major disruptions, especially in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and it really affected global trade,” Bwenje said.

He noted that around a third of global fertiliser-related trade passes through the corridor, while key inputs such as ammonia and sulphur are also affected by broader Gulf supply chain disruptions and shifting export dynamics from major producers including Russia and India.

“In terms of fertilisers, 21% of U.S. imports pass through the strait. In terms of ammonia and sulphur, they pass through the Gulf. Our local blending also depends on raw materials coming from this route,” he said.

Rising costs, tightening supply chains

Bwenje warned that fertiliser price inflation is already accelerating, with nitrogen-based products increasing by between 20% and 30%, while shipping costs to regional ports such as Beira have surged by as much as 88.9%.

“These increases are really causing a threat to the food security situation of the country,” he said. “We need to do something to protect access to fertiliser, prevent yield losses, and ensure affordable food production.”

Zimbabwe’s heavy reliance on imported fertiliser inputs means that any sustained disruption in global supply chains is quickly transmitted into domestic production costs, particularly for maize, the country’s staple crop.

The ministry has developed three possible scenarios, best case, moderate, and worst case, to assess the potential impact on agriculture.

Under the best-case scenario, partial reopening of safe shipping corridors could stabilise supply flows, although prices would still remain elevated by 50% to 55%. Delays and shortages would persist but remain manageable.

The moderate scenario, which assumes prolonged conflict lasting six to twelve months, would push fertiliser prices up by 30% to 50%, with significant shortages of urea and compound fertilisers. Yield losses would become more pronounced, and production shocks more visible across the agricultural sector.

The worst-case scenario, where disruptions extend beyond a year, would trigger chronic shortages, severe supply instability, and major risks to national food security.

“In the moderate case, we could see up to an 8% decline in crop production,” Bwenje warned. “That would require importing an additional 400,000 to 600,000 metric tonnes of grain, placing serious pressure on fiscal resources.”

He added that this import requirement could translate into an additional US$100m to US$200m burden on the economy, deepening external sector vulnerabilities.

Beyond production losses, the fertiliser shock is expected to filter through to food inflation, increasing the cost of basic staples and widening household food insecurity risks.

“So all this is pointing to deliberate policies and interventions that need to be done,” Bwenje said.

“We need to stabilise fertiliser prices early so that we don’t end up paying more through imports and inflation.”

To mitigate the risks, the Ministry is pushing a multi-pronged strategy aimed at reducing dependence on volatile global supply chains.

Key recommendations include diversifying fertiliser import sources, strengthening domestic blending capacity, and expanding local production of organic fertilisers.

Potential alternative supply markets include Morocco, Egypt, Russia, Nigeria, and South Africa, although officials caution that many of these countries face similar global input constraints.

Bwenje also highlighted ongoing government efforts under the Presidential fertiliser support programme, which is increasingly allocating contracts to local manufacturers and blenders to build domestic resilience.

“We need to promote blending plants and invest in our own capacity. Local production is critical if we are to insulate ourselves from global shocks,” he said.

The ministry is also encouraging a shift towards organic fertilisers and improved agricultural practices to reduce dependence on imported inputs.

Proposals include expanded use of conservation agriculture, soil testing, targeted fertiliser application, crop rotation, and increased use of legumes to improve soil fertility.

Liquid fertilisers were also highlighted as a more efficient alternative due to higher absorption rates.

In addition, programmes such as Pfumvudza/Intwasa are being promoted as cost-efficient models that reduce fertiliser requirements while maintaining yields through precision application.

Bwenje said Zimbabwe must begin treating fertiliser not merely as an agricultural input, but as a strategic national commodity requiring structured reserves and policy safeguards.

“We need to build farmer resilience and explore national fertiliser reserve systems so that we can insulate ourselves against shocks,” he said.