El Niño threat raises drought fears
LIVINGSTONE MARUFU
Zimbabwe is facing an elevated risk of a developing El Niño weather phenomenon during the 2026/2027 summer cropping season, raising fears of another severe drought that could weigh heavily on agriculture and the broader economy, Business Times can report.
In a preliminary climate update, the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) said assessments from global climate forecasting centres indicate an 88% to 94% probability of an El Niño event developing during the upcoming agricultural season.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and is often linked to reduced rainfall across Southern Africa, including Zimbabwe.
Historically, El Niño conditions in Zimbabwe have carried a 65% likelihood of below-normal rainfall, a development that can severely affect crop production, water availability and livestock conditions.
Climate experts say El Niño events, which previously occurred over longer cycles, are now becoming more frequent due to climate change, increasing pressure on vulnerable economies dependent on rain-fed agriculture.
“Because of this inherent uncertainty, the MSD has not yet issued its official seasonal forecast and warns the public and stakeholders against making final agricultural or financial decisions based solely on these preliminary models,” the department said.
The MSD, however, cautioned that forecasts issued early in the year remain subject to uncertainty because of what scientists call the “spring predictability barrier,” where atmospheric and oceanic conditions can still shift significantly before the onset of the rainy season.
The department said a clearer national climate outlook would be released in August 2026 following the Southern African Development Community Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF).
The report, which will be issued under the National Climate Outlook Forum (NACOF), is expected to incorporate more recent climate data and provide firmer scientific guidance for seasonal planning by farmers, businesses and policymakers.
Despite the early warning signs, the MSD urged the public and the farming community to remain calm and avoid panic-driven decision-making.
Authorities encouraged farmers to continue with normal preparations for the forthcoming cropping season while gradually adopting climate-resilient farming practices.
Water conservation measures, improved soil moisture retention techniques and the adoption of drought-tolerant seed varieties are among the strategies being encouraged to minimise potential climate-related risks.
A severe El Niño-induced drought could significantly slow Zimbabwe’s economic growth, given the country’s heavy reliance on rainfall-dependent agriculture.
Historically, El Niño years have dealt a major blow to the economy, with the agricultural sector at times contracting by more than 22%, triggering ripple effects across food security, inflation, electricity generation and rural livelihoods.
During previous El Niño cycles, Zimbabwe experienced severe drought conditions that affected harvests, dam levels and hydropower generation, while also intensifying humanitarian pressures in several provinces.
