Zim set for near one million-tonne grain surplus after bumper harvest

LIVINGSTONE MARUFU

Zimbabwe is poised to record a grain surplus approaching one million metric tonnes following a strong 2025/26 agricultural season, according to the latest national crop assessment.

The Agriculture Assessment Report shows that total grain is projected at 2,876,614 metric tonnes, comprising an estimated harvest of 2,739,712 tonnes and a strategic grain reserve of 136,902 tonnes. Depending on consumption patterns, the national cereals balance sheet to March 2027 now points to a surplus ranging between 550,945 tonnes and 964,945 tonnes.

The figures, if sustained through the marketing and storage cycle, would place Zimbabwe within touching distance of a symbolic return to net grain self-sufficiency, an ambition long associated with its historical “breadbasket” status.

Agriculture, Mechanisation and Water Resources Development Minister Anxious Masuka said the outlook confirms that the country has adequate grain stocks to meet domestic demand, even under higher-consumption scenarios.

“The national cereals balance sheet to March 2027 shows that the nation expects surplus cereals ranging from 550,945 MT to 964,945 MT, according to various consumption patterns,” Masuka said, adding that the production outcome reflects both improved agronomic practices and expanded support under government-led programmes.

Beyond cereals, the report paints a broader picture of recovery across key agricultural sub-sectors, with notable gains in both export-oriented and traditional crops.

Traditional grains, long considered critical for drought resilience, are estimated at 390,272 tonnes. This includes 290,216 tonnes of sorghum, 87,677 tonnes of pearl millet and 12,379 tonnes of finger millet, underscoring a policy shift towards climate-resilient crop diversification.

In the industrial crop segment, soyabean output surged 129 per cent to 96,129 tonnes from 41,919 tonnes in the previous season, reflecting expanded planting under contracted schemes and improved input distribution. Cotton production is projected at 77,212 tonnes, up 26 per cent from 61,289 tonnes, while tobacco output is estimated at 378,322 tonnes, a 7 per cent increase from 353,452 tonnes.

Livestock production also recorded broad-based growth, with output in goats, sheep, pigs and poultry rising between 0.3 per cent and 29 per cent. Horticultural production expanded by 10 per cent to 44 per cent across various crops, reinforcing the gradual deepening of Zimbabwe’s agricultural value chain beyond staple grains.

Analysts say the combined performance points to a gradual normalisation of production after years of volatility driven by erratic rainfall, input constraints and structural inefficiencies in the sector.

Cabinet has since adopted a series of measures aimed at consolidating the gains, with a focus on protecting domestic production, improving climate resilience and strengthening rural agricultural infrastructure.

Central to the policy direction is the enforcement of Statutory Instrument 87 of 2025, which is designed to prioritise local grain production and procurement. Government also plans to accelerate climate-proofing interventions through expanded irrigation development and the Pfumvudza/Intwasa conservation agriculture programme, which has become a cornerstone of smallholder support.

In addition, authorities have reaffirmed the need for tighter alignment of crops to agro-ecological zones, alongside improved soil fertility management supported by enhanced agricultural information systems.

The state is also pushing for stronger resourcing of Rural Development 8.0 schemes, including investments in Village Business Units and the establishment of Ward Drought Mitigation Centres, which are intended to build resilience at community level against future climate shocks.

Another key intervention is the revitalisation of the cotton sector through a tailored corporate rescue framework for the relevant state-owned entity, a move aimed at reversing years of declining competitiveness in the fibre industry.

Government has also placed emphasis on expediting payments to cotton farmers, a longstanding bottleneck that has undermined confidence in the sector and affected production incentives.

While the surplus projection signals a significant policy milestone, questions remain around post-harvest management, storage capacity, and market absorption, areas that have historically constrained the translation of production gains into sustained food security.

Still, the latest figures suggest Zimbabwe’s agricultural recovery is gaining momentum, with the possibility of reshaping both its food security trajectory and its regional trade positioning if surpluses are efficiently managed.