Choose reform or regression

Zimbabwe has once again found itself under the stern scrutiny of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

But this time, the stakes are higher than ever.

As IMF mission chief Wojciech Maliszewski leads discussions with government officials, a firm message has emerged from the halls of global finance, the road to economic recovery must now be paved with real reform, not rhetoric.

This is not merely a diplomatic visit. It is a strategic checkpoint in Zimbabwe’s decades-long struggle to stabilize its economy, rein in inflation, and regain credibility in the global financial system.

The Staff-Monitored Programme (SMP) now on the table represents a golden opportunity — and potentially the last one — to set Zimbabwe on a path toward debt clearance, investor confidence, and sustained economic growth.

But that road comes with conditions.

And the IMF has been clear: there can be no shortcuts.

Zimbabwe must embrace three core principles — fiscal discipline, a transparent foreign exchange market, and full adoption of its new currency, the ZiG.

Failure on any front could unravel the fragile gains made and plunge the economy back into uncertainty.

At the heart of the IMF’s message is a non-negotiable demand for fiscal responsibility. Zimbabwe’s past is littered with the wreckage of excessive government spending — from unbudgeted subsidies and ballooning public wages to politically motivated splurges in election years.

These fiscal misadventures have repeatedly fueled inflation, destabilized the currency, and made long-term planning impossible for businesses.

Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube says the government is committed to staying within its means.

That is commendable.

But commitment must now translate into concrete action.

The Mid-Term Budget Review will be a litmus test.

Will it demonstrate a genuine resolve to curb spending, or merely recycle promises that markets no longer trust?

To rebuild credibility, Zimbabwe needs transparent budgeting, ruthless expenditure control, and public financial management reforms that prevent resource leakages. Anything less will doom the current stability to a short-lived reprieve.

The second plank of reform is one Zimbabwe has danced around for too long — the creation of a liquid, market-driven foreign exchange system.

The current dual exchange rate regime, in which the official rate differs sharply from the parallel market, has become a drag on business planning, investment inflows, and export competitiveness.

The IMF rightly insists that Zimbabwe deepen its foreign exchange market and allow genuine price discovery. Only then will businesses have the confidence to plan, trade, and invest without fear of arbitrary shifts or backdoor interventions by monetary authorities.

True convergence of exchange rates is not an invitation to depreciate the currency recklessly — it is an appeal for coherence, predictability, and transparency. Without that, the economy will remain hostage to speculation and distortion.

The Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency is the latest symbol of monetary reform.

Backed by gold and introduced to stabilize an economy long haunted by hyperinflation, ZiG has brought a modicum of calm to the monetary system. But the IMF’s position is sobering: stability alone is not enough.

For the ZiG to succeed, it must be embraced — fully and unequivocally — as the national currency. That means ending the policy ambiguity around multi-currency use. It means pricing goods and services in ZiG, paying taxes and salaries in ZiG, and removing incentives to hoard foreign currencies.

The government cannot allow the ZiG to become another transitional experiment that fades under pressure.

It must be embedded in law, policy, and practice — or it will crumble under the weight of speculation and lack of confidence.

Zimbabwe’s US$21 billion debt overhang is more than a financial liability — it is a barrier to development. Until arrears are cleared, the country remains locked out of international capital markets, unable to fund infrastructure, boost public services, or invest in long-term growth.

The IMF’s Staff-Monitored Programme is Zimbabwe’s path to redemption. But to walk it successfully, the country must show consistent reform, not just in policy documents but in fiscal execution, monetary governance, and institutional strengthening.

The international community is watching closely. Creditors will not open their coffers unless Zimbabwe proves it can manage its economy with discipline and transparency.

Economic reform is never just about economics.

It is about leadership.

The greatest threat to Zimbabwe’s recovery is not inflation or exchange rate misalignment — it is political inertia. The tendency to prioritize short-term political survival over long-term national development has crippled past reform efforts.

This time must be different. The IMF has drawn a clear line in the sand. The government must choose: stick to the reform path and unlock prosperity, or fall back into the populist traps of old and risk renewed collapse.

Zimbabwe stands at a critical crossroads. The decisions made in these coming months will shape the country’s trajectory for a generation.

The message is clear: reform is not a luxury — it is a lifeline.