2024: A year of distress for agric sector
LIVINGSTONE MARUFU
The year 2024 has been a grim chapter for Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector, which contracted by 15% due to an El Niño-induced drought.
This extreme weather event severely impacted the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, with Zimbabwe recording its lowest rainfall in decades during the 2023-2024 cropping season.
The result was widespread food insecurity, water shortages, and significant economic challenges.
Government officials have described 2024 as the worst drought Zimbabwe has faced since independence.
Maize production, a staple crop for the nation, plummeted by 72%, dropping from 2.5m metric tonnes in the 2022-2023 season to just over 700,000 tonnes in 2023-2024.
Consequently, 7.6m Zimbabweans became food insecure, and 1.4m cattle faced starvation. The crisis forced Zimbabwe, along with neighbouring countries such as Zambia and Malawi, to issue urgent appeals for international food aid.
The permanent secretary in the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water, and Rural Development, Professor Obert Jiri, described the season as one of the most challenging in decades.
“This (2024) was the worst drought in 44 years,” Prof. Jiri said.
“However, the effects were mitigated to some extent. Fewer cattle died than anticipated, no lives were lost to hunger, and basic commodity prices remained stable due to our interventions.”
Agriculture, the cornerstone of Zimbabwe’s economy, has far-reaching implications when it falters.
The sector’s struggles reverberated across other critical industries, such as tourism, manufacturing, and energy production, which rely heavily on agricultural output. These challenges contributed to a significant downward revision of the national economic growth forecast for 2024, reduced from over 5% in 2023 to just 2%.
Despite the grim outlook, the government pointed to some resilience within the sector. A better-than-expected winter wheat harvest helped offset the worst effects of the drought, reducing the sector’s contraction to 15% instead of the initially projected 21%.
Finance, Economic Development, and Investment Promotion Minister, Professor Mthuli Ncube, expressed cautious optimism for the future during his recent budget presentation. He forecasted a strong recovery for the agriculture sector in 2025, driven by anticipated normal to above-normal rainfall and policy interventions aimed at boosting productivity.
“The agriculture sector is projected to recover from a 15% contraction in 2024 and grow by 12.8% in 2025,” Prof. Ncube said.
In a landmark decision, the Zimbabwe Government introduced measures to make land bankable, a move that could help transform the agricultural sector.
In October 2024, the government began implementing policies to replace the existing 99-year leases, offer letters, and permits with bankable, registrable, and transferable land tenure documents.
Farmers have long struggled to access funding due to the non-bankability of these leases. Banks were unwilling to accept them as collateral because of uncertainties around land tenure and the lack of immovable assets among most farmers.
Information Minister Dr. Jenfan Muswere explained the importance of this shift at a post-Cabinet media briefing.
“The government will introduce a more secure document of tenure to provide enhanced security for landholders under the land reform program,” Dr. Muswere said.
“This move will ensure beneficiaries of the land reform program can use their land as collateral to access funding for agricultural activities.”
The policy will prioritize issuing these documents to war veterans, women, and youths, ensuring inclusivity in land reform efforts.
The anticipated recovery of the agriculture sector in 2025 will be driven by a combination of policy reforms and favourable climatic conditions.
The La Niña weather phenomenon, which typically brings normal to above-normal rainfall, is expected to play a key role in boosting crop yields during the summer cropping season.
The government has allocated ZWG 22.9bn to the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water, and Rural Development for critical initiatives such as dam construction, irrigation development, rural infrastructure improvement, and grain procurement for the Strategic Grain Reserve. These investments aim to build resilience and enhance food security.
International development partners are also expected to contribute US$77.9bn in 2025 to support drought mitigation, climate adaptation, and increased food production.
The multi-billion-dollar agricultural sector, which contributes over 60% of raw materials to the manufacturing industry and employs more than 70% of Zimbabwe’s population, is set to grow by over 13% in 2025.
This growth will not only address food insecurity but also stimulate other sectors of the economy.
The anticipated rebound in agriculture will be central to Zimbabwe’s projected economic growth of 6% in 2025. The recovery is expected to drive improvements in other sectors, including electricity generation (10.6%), information technology (9.9%), and mining (5.6%).
“The recovery in 2025 is largely attributed to the expected La Niña weather phenomenon, which typically brings above-average rainfall,” Prof. Ncube explained.
