BERNARD MPOFU
President-elect Emmerson Mnangagwa not only faces a crisis of expectations on the economic front post his election but also a herculean task in appointing a cabinet minister to steer the Finance portfolio.
Mnangagwa won 50,8 percent of the votes against MDC-Alliance’s Nelson Chamisa, who has already approached the courts challenging the result and electoral process. The constitutional court will provide a ruling on this case just before the end of the month.
That Zimbabwe is coming out of the woods albeit at a snail pace is there to see.
Independent estimates show that unemployment levels are hovering around 80 percent due to depressed output in most productive sectors. Remarkable growth rates registered in sectors such tobacco and gold is not enough to offset contrasting fortunes in other sectors.
Mnangagwa came into power in November 2017 after the ouster of President Robert Mugabe. Investor sentiment on the southern African nation was hostile excerpt for some risk seeking bargain hunters. Lack of clarity over the Indigenisation regulations compelling foreign investors to cede 51% stakes to locals stood out as the elephant in the living room until the post Mugabe regime undertook to ease the law. But that was not enough.
Many depositors now have to contend with paying a 35 percent premium from mobile money platforms to access cash. The price of fuel is also on an upward trend, pushing prices of some basic commodities in recent months. Experts say without a rescue package Zimbabwe could find the going tough to come out of an economic quagmire. Thus, renewed efforts to reengage with the international community and international financial institutions to address the country’s debt stock which is over 70 percent of the gross domestic product.
Behind the scenes, bureaucrats in the finance ministry were working around the clock while political parties oiled their campaign machinery ahead of the July 30 general elections.
The ministry crafted a short term plan titled Transitional Stabilisation Programme measures (2018-20) which will run under the theme ‘Towards a prosperous and empowered upper middle income society by 2030.’
Critics have over the years given thumbs up to the country’s economic blueprints but have also been quick to cast aspersions on the political will around these programmes.
Should Mnangagwa be sworn in, he has the prerogative to appoint five ministers who have not been elected into the House of Assembly. It is understood that Mnangagwa approached some technocrats during his campaign trail to consider running for parliamentary seats to widen his options for a new Cabinet.
This week, the Business Times looks at the possible candidates of names of potential Finance ministers that have been thrown in the hat by the market.
Patrick Chinamasa
Zanu PF politicians, credit Chinamasa for introducing the multi-currency regime before the formation of the Government of National Unity in 2009. Dollarisation was introduced to tame runaway inflation which was stocked by excessive money supply and bad policies.
Having been appointed after the tenure of the coalition government lapsed Chinamasa also has the institutional memory and momentum to see through his programmes within the next five years should there be no other cabinet reshuffle.
However since 2013, sagging exports and an unbridled government expenditure have contributed to the current shortages which should be the top priority for the next finance minister notwithstanding ongoing efforts to use alternative platforms to ease the problems.
While the market sees Chinamasa as an engaging finance minister his critics are quick to point out that he over-consults which often results in policy lethargy and in some cases self-serving decisions. They also argue that despite having vast experience in legal affairs– after having served as Justice minister and Attorney General as well as being appointed Mnangagwa’s special envoy on several occasions—Chinamasa lacks the gravitas along the corridors of those who run the Brettonwoods institutions. Herein lies the new narrative that Zimbabwe should have a technocrat with a global appeal to run this ministry.
Mthuli Ncube
Apart from popularising the concept of derivatives through his sponsored programme on national television, Ncube is widely seen as one of the best minds coming out of Zimbabwe. Aged 55 and once served as chief economist and Vice President at the African Development Bank, Ncube could play a leading role in structuring deals with one of main creditors in the region and beyond.
He is currently head of research at Quantum Global. He holds a PhD in Economics, specialising in Mathematical Finance, from Cambridge University, UK. He was also a Lecturer in Finance at the London School of Economics, UK. He was Dean of the Faculty of Commerce Law and Management, and also Dean and Professor of Finance at Wits Business School, all at University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa. He is now Chairman of the Board of African Economic Research Consortium (AERC). He has extensive experience in investment banking.
Ncube has published five books and numerous papers in economics and finance. Despite having such a remarkable profile, Ncube professional blemishes has been cited as running down Barbican Bank, one of the handful financial institutions that went under after the new millennium. More so, given the highly political environment Zimbabwe is, he is also seen as not having the spine to face off political gladiators who may push for selfdestructive populist policies.
Ozias Bvute
Newcomer on the political fray, Bvute is a banker with vast experience in the country’s banking system. This year, he joined many other technocrats who contested in the parliamentary elections and won the Goromonzi North seat.
His involvement in politics could also signal Zanu PF’s renewal exercise post former president Robert Mugabe. The Met Bank chief has also been involved with Zimbabwe Cricket at a time the prestigious sport was going through a revolution after an en masse exodus by the predominant white players.
His critics like Norton constituency MP Temba Mliswa are quick to oppose his appointment alleging that he could have been involved in transactions prejudicial to the state. Bvute however dismisses such claims as unsubstantiated.
Doug Munatsi
The former ABC Holdings chief executive officer is a seasoned banker who managed to establish a banking institutions with a huge footprint in Africa.
BancABC which was later to be sold to Atlas Mara some few years ago is an active player in the country’s financial services sector. Munatsi who features in later pages of this week’s edition of the Business Times, is seen as a close ally to Mnangagwa.
He worked closely with Oliver Chidawu at Heritage Investment Group and Bard Group. Chidawu is also linked to Mnangagwa. Those within Zanu PF maybe however be unsettled by these close links which could limit his chances of being appointed.
Canaan Dube
Dube is a respected commercial lawyer who has served on several board of listed companies including blue chip firms like Delta Corporation. He is a senior partner at Dube, Mankikai and Hwacha, a law firm that is currently representing Zanu PF in its election challenge case.
He was the first black Public Prosecutor in the Attorney General’s office after the Independence in 1980. Dube also worked in the State Attorney’s office and gave advice and litigated on a range of government mandates.
A highlight of his time in the Attorney General’s office, is his role as lead attorney and advisor on the funding arrangements and agreements leading to the construction of the National Sports Stadium of Zimbabwe.
Dube has also been instrumental in parastatal reform, a key benchmark for any Finance minister given the role played by the state-enterprises and how they often bleed treasury coffers. His waterloo could be investment and charisma that past Finance ministers have had.
Barbra Rwodzi
MP-elect for Chirumanzi constituency, Rwodzi could join government as a junior minister for Finance as she learns through the ropes for a much more challenging portfolio.
A holder of a Masters degree in Business Administration from Nottingham Trent University in England undertook to work closely with the Chirumanzu community after she initiated a number of developmental projects.
She was the only female Zanu PF candidate for the Midlands province when she made her debut into the treacherous political career.
An administrator by profession, Rwodzi is also coming from the new generation of Zanu PF politicians who could be yearning to transform the party from within. Experience to run such a critical government portfolio is her biggest challenge.
Togarepi Pupurai
Pupurai is not a novice in the financial services sector. He is a senior official at the Insurance and Pension Commission which is the regulator of the billion-dollar insurance sector.
His interaction with youth in his capacity as Zanu PF Secretary for Youth gives him a cutting edge to craft policy which resonates with the country’s largest demographic group.
He however has limited experience in investment banking and economic policy which Zimbabwe badly needs to spur economic growth.
Misheck Mataranyika
Mataranyika’s appointment could make him join the long list of men and women of the legal fraternity who have been Finance ministers in Zimbabwe.
Already Mnangagwa, Chinamasa, MDC-Alliance senior partner Tendai Biti have been mandated in the past to run this ministry.
His name is a surprise for many unlike his brother Phillip who runs one of the country’s largest funeral services company. In light of this a junior position in government would be an enormous achievement for him.
