PHILLIMON MHLANGA
PRESIDENT Emmerson Mnangagwa’s aspiration of building a middle income economy by 2030 could be a herculean task for his administration unless it adopts far-reaching reforms to make Zimbabwe competitive, industry players and economists have said.
They said Zimbabwe’s economy, which remains fragile, should grow by at least nine percent every year over the next 12 years to achieve the target.
Zimbabwe is in a vicious cycle though President Mnangagwa is optimistic the economy will this year grow by at least seven percent annually in the next five years riding on renewed hope for political stability and in investment after significant changes on the political front and other interventions.
But, analysts doubted the assertion.
Former Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) president, Busisa Moyo, who is the chief executive officer of United Refineries, a fast moving consumer goods manufacturer, told Business Times this week that it was a tough call. To achieve the targeted middle income vision by 2030, Moyo said the economy need to grow by at least 10 percent per year.
“It’s a tough call because already we have a problem on how our GDP is calculated, in that the informal sector in this country is excluded,” Moyo said.
“We need to have inclusive growth.
However in such a situation (where the informal sector in not included), the starting point is to grow primary production.
We need to grow agriculture, mining and tourism sectors by double digits per year in the next 12 years.
And on top of that we need to value add the agriculture and mining output to have an inclusive growth.
This means we need to grow the economy by at least 10 percent every year to achieve the middle income economy.”
CZI president, Sifelani Jabangwe, concurred with Moyo saying:
“The President has a 2030 vision for the country to be a middle income economy but it will be difficult unless we grow the economy by 9,5 percent in the next decade to achieve the proposed middle income class. We need to work hard on this and government to make serious reforms,” Jabangwe said.
Ashok Chakravarti, an economist told Business Times yesterday that with containing fiscal deficit, monetary reforms, expediting re-engagement process with the international community it will not be possible to be a middle income economy by 2030.
He highlighted that the economy need to grow by at least nine percent to achieve the target.
