BATANAI KAMUNYARU
In as much as business leaders try to base their today’s actions and promises on predicted future events, it is futile. The best that leaders should do about the future is to anticipate the future effects of events that may have irreversibly happened – this is so because the future cannot be known and of certainty is that the future will be different from what currently exists and from that which business leaders now expect. Even the strongest company will be in trouble if it is not working on its future, and what remains is big-company overheads. Not creating the business future today is a risk that both the biggest and smallest companies cannot afford – therefore, never glide on the assumption that the current business environment will remain constant – for it will surely change.
Every business leader must embrace the urgency to work systematically on creating their business future today – not only working to eliminate risks and uncertainties, for the future cannot be known with certainty. It is the responsibility of the business leader to create the right risks for the organisation and exploit the uncertainties. It is on this notion that the purpose of creating the future is not to predict what should be done tomorrow, but what should be done today to have a better tomorrow.
Even though the future will be different and cannot be predicted with certainty, business leaders should work tirelessly to find and exploit the time lag between the appearance of a growth or discontinuity in the economy or society and its full impact. By doing this, one will be taking an advantage of a future that has happened already. The leaders who build value for their businesses do so when everyone is waiting to see the whole bandwagon. James Goldsmith once said, “If you see a bandwagon, it’s too late.” The turbulence in several economies in the world did not start now, they are just effects of events that have already happened, so basing decisions on the current for the future may be futile. It is not by chance that some businesses will come to a halt whilst others are prospering – it has already happened and trying to make the fixes now may be too late.
The businesses that missed the now some years ago should focus on creating their future from the appearances that are becoming prevalent currently. Take advantage of the lag between the appearance and the full impact. It will also be too late to try to create an idea that tries to give direction and shape what is to come when the turbulence has subsided. As a business leader, make the future of your business happen today – if you hope to enjoy the profits of tomorrow. In the Zimbabwean economy, before the year 2009 dollarization, Delta Beverages company created its future at the pick of turbulence – and the future was for a stable environment. The leaders of the company then, saw the appearances of a stable economy and its full impact and they took advantage. The organisation recorded very good profits in the years that followed – it was not by chance, but by demonstrated skill and understanding of the times.
There is always a time lag between a major event, be it economic, social, cultural, or political and its full impact. For example, a sharp rise or drop in a country’s birthrate will not influence the markets or employment for a minimum of eighteen years – even though the change might have happened already. In such instances, it is the business leader who reads such an event and the future of the business in the next eighteen years who will take advantage of the situation. Also, in the creation of employment, when population is growing, a nation must read the trends and plan accordingly. What would demand for employment be like in the next ten or twenty years with the current birthrates or population growth? What would demand be like for the company’s products? The wise business leader will read and prepare.
When creating the future of your business today, it is of importance to look outside the organisation – for the future that has already happened cannot be found within the organisation. The future that already happened is outside the organisation, a change in the economic structure, a change in the cultures, a change in the society, a change in politics, a change in education and knowledge or a change in industry. There is an interesting conversation in the scriptures where Phillip was conversing with the Ethiopian Eunuch in Acts 8. Phillip asked the Eunuch a very important question that is difficult to answer even for many business leaders today, “Do you understand what you are reading?” The response was amazing, the Eunuch said, “Of course not! How can I when there is no one to instruct me?” Therefore, as a business leader, are you understanding what you are reading from the environment to be able to create the business future today? A future that has already happened is massive potential for your business to make great profits!
Of importance to note is that the change must not be a trend and it should be a break in a pattern rather than a variation within. With a break in a pattern or a major change, even though there is considerable risk and uncertainty to committing resources to anticipation, it is worthy doing – some businesses became great by this. The risk of committing resources to a major change or break in a pattern is better than hoping that things will remain the same. The current Zimbabwean economic turbulence will change one day, just like before in year 2009, will you be ready as a business leader? Or you are going to shut down the company because the new environment will be too tough than the current? It is valuable information to remember that a significant number of companies closed shop after dollarization than before. Failure to create the future today!
The changes that have a huge impact in the future has already happened and the business leader who searches shall find the answer. Never to be ignored is the country’s or the continent’s demographics. Demography changes are very key for the markets, employment, economic opportunities and social pressures. According to the World Bank stats, in 1980, Zimbabwe’s population was 7.2 million – business was recorded as booming and employment was ‘available’. The population grew at a faster rate than the rate at which new businesses were being formed. 30 years later, in 2010, population doubled to 14.09 million – employment became an issue and old businesses were collapsing. The market grew but there are no businesses to service the market – hence the country is importing every little thing. Let the future businessman see these changes and create the future of his business today. Currently the population is recorded to be sitting at 17.3 million, what is going to happen to business in the next 10 years? What is going to happen to employment in the next 10 years?
Before the population doubles to approximately 35 million and put tremendous pressure on school facilities – obviously there will be greater demand for schools after every 4 to 6 years after birth – the pressure is coming, and such consequences are nearly predictable – do you understand what you are reading? The current effects are from events that happened several years ago. What are the business leaders doing to provide a good future for their organisations? There are great opportunities hidden in the current crises! King Solomon wrote, “It is God’s privilege to conceal things, and the king’s privilege to discover and invent.” Let the future businessman invent inventions from the current turbulence, to take advantage of the future, for turbulence will not stay forever. Ask the question, “Are there opportunities here that we should and could anticipate?”
Creating the future of your business today might not be very complicated, have a look at other markets, other industries or even other countries and see if there is anything that happened there that might establish a pattern for your market, industry or country. Check also to see if there are any structure changes to industries that might point to a major change in your own industry. However, the analysis must be done wisely, even engaging experts. It is not wisdom to think that an advisor or consultant is there to increase your expenses, they are there to give you valuable information that may save you a huge loss if you engage them.
Napoleon Hill, in Think and Grow Rich, talks about being “three feet away from gold”. To quote, “…They sold the machinery to a junk man for a few hundred dollars and took the train back home. Some “junk” men are dumb, but not this one! He called in a mining engineer to look at the mine and do a little calculating. The engineer advised that the project had failed, because the owners were not familiar with “fault lines.” His calculations showed that the vein would be found just three feet from where the Darbys had stopped drilling! That is exactly where it was found! The “Junk” man took millions of dollars in ore from the mine, because he knew enough to seek expert counsel before giving up.” As a leader, do not be quick to shut down before engaging the experts!
What are you going to do differently about the progress of your business and about its future? Are you going to watch as things glide, or you are going to create the future of your business today – especially from the future that has already happened? It is likely that if an anticipation meets with widespread acceptance, it does not predict the future, instead it will be a report of the past! A great future business masters the gap between the impact of something and its happening – and it is futile to try to predict the products and processes that the future will want – for what will be needed is already present – just a time gap!
Batanai Kamunyaru is a business writer, speaker and coach. He can be contacted on bat.kamunyaru@gmail.com or +263 718 852 489.
