The Democrats retook the US House of Representatives, dealing a major blow to President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda, but if anxious politicians in Beijing think that means a reprieve from the White House, they should think again.
China is one of the few policy areas where there is some bipartisan consensus. The Democrats broadly agree that the US should take tougher action against the rising power across a range of fronts, from the military, to trade, intelligence and diplomacy.
Desperate for a solution to the trade war that is weighing on China’s economy, there is a view in China that a Democrat-led House might mean a softer stance against Beijing.
Nick Marro, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said that view was misguided because the Democrats have historically been more pro-labour unions and less in favour of unconstrained free trade than their opponents. “It’s unlikely that they’ll push for greater trade engagement with China,” he said.
Even if the House wanted to, the power to slap tariffs on China is essentially vested in the executive — that’s President Trump. If he needs support from Congress on China policy in the future, the Democrats have shown few signs they’ll stand in his way.
All this is bad news for Chinese President Xi Jinping, whose government has been scrambling to appease an increasingly hostile US administration, after attempts at flattery and acts of friendship early in Trump’s term didn’t quite deliver.
Beyond the economic implications, the optics of the row with Trump are also hurting Xi at home.
Willy Lam, an adjunct professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Centre for China Studies and well-connected political analyst, said Xi has faced rare criticism from inside the ruling Communist Party for his handling of the US crisis.
“He has been widely criticised, not by name of course, but subtly, for failing to handle Trump’s multi-pronged challenge. He’s very much on the defensive,” Lam said.
‘Competitive and confrontational’
The trade war between the US and China that Trump ignited in the middle of the year steadily worsened over months, with tariffs now on more than $250 billion of Chinese goods.
But it was a landmark speech by US Vice President Mike Pence in early October that marked the start of a new aggressive policy against Beijing, sparking talk of a new Cold War.
“Beijing is employing a whole-of-government approach to advance its influence and benefit its interests. It’s employing this power in more proactive and coercive ways to interfere in the domestic policies of this country,” Pence said in Washington on October 4.
“To put it bluntly, President Trump’s leadership is working. China wants a different American President.”
Adding fuel to the fire, both Trump and Pence have accused China of trying to meddle in the November 6 elections, citing little proof. The claims have been roundly denied by Beijing.
The US leaders pointed to Chinese state media’s placement of advertorials in US newspapers as evidence, but analysts say that practice is longstanding and pales in comparison with past Russian efforts at interference.
Tensions have also been rising over the disputed territory of Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province, and the bitterly contested islands in the South China Sea, where the US has been increasingly pushing back against Beijing.
All this has led to a perception in China that Trump’s criticisms against the country were merely a way to drum up the Republican vote ahead of the Tuesday’s elections.
Tong Zhao, a fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre for Global Policy in Beijing, said China had been “over-emphasized” in US politics of late. “The sentiment is that the US is hyping up the competitive and confrontational nature of bilateral relations for the benefits of domestic politics.”
Tense relationship
But the fear of a more powerful China in the United States is real. Trump made competitiveness with China a major part of his election campaign two years ago, and now it’s not all about trade.
In addition to increasing military manoeuvres near China’s doorsteps, Trump appears to be using aid to counter China’s influence in the world.
Trump threatened to cut foreign aid before his election, but last month he signed off on the newly created US International Development Finance Corporation for developing nations in October, backed with $60 billion in loans and other assistance. That came just a month after Xi announced his own package of aid, investment and loans in Africa, also worth $60 billion.
Yet there is some cause for optimism. Trump and Xi’s on-again-off-again friendship seems to have warmed after a phone call last Wednesday. It was their first conversation in months and came barely a week before the midterm elections, hinting at a thaw in relations.
Trump tweeted about his “long and very good conversation” with Xi, and called the Chinese President “great” numerous times in a campaign rally speech after the call.
But Beijing has become familiar with Trump’s fickle nature, and soon mixed signals began to creep into the White House messaging.
While Bloomberg News, citing sources, reported that Trump had directed his Cabinet to draft a trade deal with Beijing, top White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said the two countries were “not on the cusp of a deal.”
Tough line on China ‘popular’
The idea that the Chinese government would pin its hope on the Democrats to ease tensions is remarkable, especially as Xi tightens his grip domestically and cracks down hard on anything perceived as dissent.
For decades, ever since President Richard Nixon made a historic visit to Communist China in 1972, it was his fellow Republicans — more pro-business than the Democrats — who tended to be China’s closest allies in Washington.
