Zim on the brink as season ends

LIVINGSTONE MARUFU

Zimbabwe is on the brink of a worst drought in decades amid revelations by the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) that the country will receive light showers up to the end of this month.

This comes as the majority of the rain-fed crops are in dire state and in need of strong rains in the next few days to salvage the season.

With the dry spell prolonging for over three weeks, Zimbabwe is heading towards one of the worst droughts since 1992.

The MSD told Business Times that the rainfall season was expected to end mid-March but has ended in some areas.

“We can’t conclusively say that the summer cropping season has officially ended as we are still expecting some isolated light showers in all Mashonaland provinces, Harare Metropolitan, some parts of Matabeleland and northern Manicaland from Wednesday this week up to the weekend with dry spell expected to strengthen in the southern parts of the country,” MSD said.

“According to our predictions, we are not expecting any strong rainfall across the country up to the end of March.”

The Met Department had predicted the season to start from December and end in March. The rains began in January and ended mid-February leaving most crops in a precarious position.

“The only month that was consistent with rains was January with all other months not constant and this has affected farming planning thereby affecting the total output,” the MSD said.

Information, Publicity and Broadcasting Services Minister Monica Mutsvangwa said on Tuesday the migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone northwards into Zambia and the tropical cyclones in the Mozambique Channel have contributed to the reduced rainfall activity over Zimbabwe.

“However, in the next seven days, the country is expected to receive mostly light rains with the exception of the extreme northern parts during the forecast period,” Mutsvangwa said at a post-Cabinet briefing.

The Zimbabwe Farmers Union secretary general Paul Zakariya blamed the Met department for not giving accurate information.

“The situation  in the fields is dire as we are faced with the worst drought in many years  but the MSD should have done better in telling the nation more  accurate information for proper planning rather than guess work it continues to do,” Zakariya said.

“This week, the output has dropped down by 55% and rains are needed to save the few that are left in the fields.”

A number of farmers across the country had planted crops as late as January this year following a prolonged dry spell that characterised the first half (October to December 2021) of the season that saw early planted crops drying out.

The rains stopped on February 10 this year in most parts of the country with isolated rains in some parts.

According to the survey carried by Business Times, the early crop was at maturity level and was most affected as it needs the most  rain   at that level while the late planted crop has just passed the waist level.

The Zimbabwe Commercial Farmers Union president, Shadreck Makombe said the situation has deteriorated and “we only pray that it rains this week”.

“With the current conditions we have now lost 50% of our output,” Makombe said.

The unprecedented situation across Zimbabwe, which is located in the subtropics and very vulnerable to climate shocks,  has left experts fearing for the worst.

More than 70% of Zimbabwe’s population resides in rural areas and are dependent on agriculture for livelihood.

With the current phenomenon, over 60% of the population will become food insecure.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) Zimbabwe Food Security Outlook expects the drought to have serious implications to the  already fragile economy.

“Crisis outcomes are expected to persist in most typical deficit-producing areas through March due to non-availability of own-produced food stocks, reductions in agricultural labour opportunities and income, and limited access to food and other commodities on the market,” FEWSNET said.

“In the surplus-producing areas, especially across the Mashonaland Provinces, households in the more productive resettlement areas will continue relying on above average reserves from last year’s harvest, allowing them to experience minimal outcomes through the end of the lean season and for the remainder of the projection period.

“Meanwhile, the communal zones in the surplus-producing areas, where reserves are relatively lower, are likely to finish the lean season experiencing stressed outcomes.”

FEWSNET said between June and September, households will deplete their stocks faster than usual given below-normal production and will have to rely on markets to meet their food needs.

Incomes are expected  to be constrained by below normal expectations for crop sales, casual labour, livestock sales and vegetable production and sales, it said.

“This reduced income, combined with high international commodity price trends and a continuation of general inflation and poor macroeconomic conditions will constrain household purchasing power and reduce households’ food access.

“Poor households may meet their minimal food needs but will continue to experience difficulty accessing other foods and non-food needs mainly due to below-average income, above-average prices, and increasing cost of living. The 2021/22 urban and peri-urban crop production prospects are expected at below normal levels,” reads part of the FEWSNET.

The prospects of a drought will affect growth projections. Finance minister, Mthuli Ncube had projected the economy to grow by 5.5% this year, underpinned by higher output in agriculture,  alongside mining and manufacturing.

The underlying assumptions for the projected growth were anchored on normal to  above normal rainfall patterns, according to Ncube.

Ncube projected the agriculture sector to grow by a modest 5.1% this year , attributable to expected favourable rainfall season and implementation of government support programmes.