Zim GDP grows 4,7 percent

Taking into account the changes in the structure of industrial activities between 2009 and 2012, changes in relative prices of various products and the increase in the number if establishments during the same period, Zimbabwe has rebased its Gross Domestic Product figures.

According to Zimstat, this means that real GDP (using 2012 as the base year) grew to $19,18 billion from $18,32 billion, representing a growth rate of 4,7 percent. The rebasing also improved the debt to and the tax to GDP ratios.

Finance and Economic Development minister Mthuli Ncube noted that the Zimbabwean economy was much bigger than previously thought. “The official GDP is now actually bigger. Our per capita income is around $1 500. This means that even as things are, we are technically a lower middle income country and it would be easier for us to achieve upper middle income status by 2030.”

“The issue of rebasing GDP is not new. It has been done three times before and in compliance with global standards. According to international best practices, all the countries that are compiling national accounts aggregates should update the GDP base year periodically.” Ghana last week rebased its GDP figures to $51,9 billion from $41,6 billion using 2013 as the base year. Per capita income is now at $1 792,95.

A change in the base year has also been influenced by a change in the structure of the economy since 2006, adding that certain activities, which had little economic importance in 2006 have gained prominence now and may contribute more to the economy than before. Zimstat embarked on a programme to revamp all its statistical systems in 2011 to 2013 by carrying out censuses and surveys which were used as building blocks to the rebasing of GDP figures to 2012 base year.

The censuses and surveys used as building blocks to the exercise included the Central Business Register Inquiry (CBRI), Census of Industrial Production (CIP), Survey of Ser vices and the Poverty Income Consumption and Expenditure Survey (PICES). PICES provided information on the informal sector and the households private final consumption expenditure.

The revision in the figures was due to significantly improved coverage of economic activities in the economy in 2016, especially in sectors like Distribution, Hotels and Restaurants which grew up by 111,4 percent, Manufacturing with 93% growth, Other Services with 84,6%, Electricity and Water with 75,7% growth, Real Estate with 20,9% growth and Transport and Communication with 16,7% growth.

According to Zimstat, the increased output across all the sectors brought about by more data being made available when a bottom up approach was used in collecting data for the Central Business Register (CBR) which consequently had the same effect when the Survey of Services (SS) survey was conducted.

Using the rebased figures, in 2017, the nominal GDP grew from $20,55 billion in 2016 to $22,04 billion, a growth rate of 7,3%.

Correspondingly, the real GDP grew from $18,32 billion in 2016 to $19.18 billion giving a growth of 4,7%. The per capita GDP was $1 511 in 2017 as compared to $1 441 in 2016, which is a growth rate of 4,9%.

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