STEMBILE MPOFU
The presentation of the monetary policy and fiscal policy contained in the October 2018 – December 2020 Transitional Stabilisation Programme (TSP) set Zimbabwe on an economic roller coaster. The last two weeks have been characterised by currency turbulence, panic buying of basic commodities, fuel shortages and rampant profiteering by some businesses and individuals from the situation. It has been very difficult to make sense of these events because there is all manner of information, theories and conspiracies circulating amongst the citizens. In trying to make sense of these events, I remembered a story I read many years ago. I will share and analyse it in the hope that it will assist readers in finding some method in the madness. This is the story.
There was once a monk and his assistant who went on a pilgrimage. As they travelled through the various towns and cities they were given food and shelter by the inhabitants, as was the practice. In exchange they would impart knowledge and wise teachings to help the people navigate through the joys, trials and tribulations of their lives. One day, as they travelled through a very barren landscape, they came across a small shack that was home to a very poor family.
They stopped and asked to shelter there for the night. The family welcomed them and despite their obvious poverty shared the little food they had with the monk and his assistant. As they sat in the dusty dwelling eating a little cheese and drinking milk, the monk asked the family how they survived in such a barren place. They replied saying they had one cow that gave them milk. They drank the milk and cream and also churned the cream into butter and made cheese. Any excess milk they had was sold or bartered to get the extra things they needed. It was clear to the monk that there was little excess milk available for extra things because the family had very little.
The next day the Monk and his assistant said thank you and set off to continue their journey. When they were not far from the dwelling the monk turned to his assistant and said,“ Go and find their cow, take it to that ledge and push it off the cliff.” You can imagine his assistant’s response; he could not understand why the monk was asking him to do something so cruel. “I cannot do that, these people depend on that cow, and they will die if I push it off the cliff.” The monk stared hard into his assistant’s eyes and told him to do exactly as he had instructed. With a troubled heart the assistant went to find the cow and pushed it over the cliff.
Some years later the monk and his assistant happened to pass the same way again. The landscape was not as stark and in the place where they had found the shack many years before, they found a large house with a beautiful garden. They went to the house and knocked on the door. Standing before them was the father of the poor family looking healthier and much wealthier. They were invited in and treated to a sumptuous meal. While they ate the family told their visitors what had happened in the years since they had passed their way.
They spoke of how they woke one morning to find their cow had fallen off the cliff. They spoke of their devastation when they realised that their cow was dead. They said the circumstances they found themselves in meant they were forced to find other ways of staying alive.
This is how they had discovered different ways to make more money and live a more comfortable life. They said they did not realise it at the time, but the death of their cow was the best thing that could have happened to them.
Reflecting on this story and its lessons and observing Zimbabwe’s current situation may provide a clue on how Zimbabweans could navigate this time in the country’s development. If we see President Mnangagwa and Mthuli Ncube as the Monk and his assistant, the family in the shack as Zimbabwe’s citizens and the cow as the economic model the citizens have depended on for many years, we may begin to make sense of events beyond the noise.
Lets begin by looking at the barren landscape that the monk and his assistant come upon. The landscape is barren as a result of many years of misuse and mismanagement of the resources that were available. The vegetation was used up more quickly than it could recover. Perhaps trees were cut down and none were planted in their place. In this place we find a poor family surviving on the milk of one cow. Milk is usually looked upon as a symbol of wealth and health. Folklore often refers to a land where there is milk and honey as a Garden of Eden. It is here we see the family surviving on milk like Zimbabwe’s citizens depend on the US dollar currency to trade. The US dollar like milk is a symbol of affluence but it unfortunately cannot offer adequate sustenance in the absence of a Zimbabwean currency. It makes their goods expensive to trade beyond their borders because production costs tend to be higher than other countries. Monetary policies devised by the central bank can only influence the currency minimally because the US dollar is controlled from elsewhere.
It is clear that how the family has been existing is not sustainable and there is an urgent need to make some radical changes. The monk takes a bold decision and declares that the cow must be pushed off the cliff. Both the monk and his assistant are aware of the effects of their action but make the bold move anyway. As with the monk and his assistant, the President and his Finance Minister required courage to begin the implementation of the TSP. This is because its implementation will adversely affect every citizen at every level of our society. Leaders in any sector will identify with the mettle needed to implement policy whose immediate effect is negative on the people you lead. It is never easy.
The family in the story is used to their way of life. They are aware that they are not living the life they would like to lead but they are surviving. Because they are getting by they wake up daily to do the same thing they did the day before and do not take any risk and do things differently. They are weighed down by their circumstances their poverty consumes them physically and mentally. We can only imagine their devastation on finding that their cow is missing. Their first days may have resembled Zimbabwe’s previous two weeks.
The family members may have first thought that their cow had been stolen. They then, on seeing it dead, likely turned on each other and accused the others for not tethering the cow properly. Panic would have gripped them as they realised that they did not have any milk to drink, barter or sell. Thereafter the survival instinct must have kicked in and they had to find new ways to survive. They had to discover opportunities they had not noticed before and begin to utilise new skills to exploit those opportunities. They had to push past their physical and mental poverty, their fear of the unknown, their thoughts of being cursed and unlucky and begin to do things differently.
When they began this journey of change their surroundings would have remained the same. They were in the same shack and beyond the shack the land was still barren. The only change was that there was no cow and they therefore no longer had the guarantee of a small meal everyday. Their circumstances most likely resembled Zimbabwe today where we are in the midst of turmoil and nothing much has changed. There are still no jobs, the dominant currency is the US dollar, prices of basic commodities are spiralling and incomes are dwindling. It is difficult to envision an improvement in the economy.
If Zimbabweans are to push beyond this place to a better space they need to come to terms with their current reality. It is important to acknowledge that the introduction of a multi-currency system in 2009 under the Government of National Unity was not a solution to the country’s problems. Despite the relief it afforded at the time, it was akin to taking a painkiller for a brain tumour when the patient needed surgery. What has happened in the mean time is that the tumour has grown and must now be removed. We must accept that the landscape is barren for now and will remain so for some time; that what the current government is doing is an attempt to revitalise that landscape by putting the economic fundamentals in place so that Zimbabweans can begin to restore the vegetation. We cannot continue to use the multi-currency system for much longer because it diminishes the competitiveness of our goods on regional and international markets. We cannot continue to import luxury goods we can ill afford or goods we are able to produce ourselves. We must begin to produce our own goods again and earn income as a country. These are opportunities we need to begin to explore for the country to start to move forward.
Before this can happen however, the government needs to do a great deal of work. In acknowledgement of the dearth of trust that exists between the citizens and the current government, it is essential that the TSP be buttressed by a robust communication plan. The current economic situation the country is in is a result of widespread corruption, mismanagement of government funds, fiscal indiscipline and poor policies that have resulted in the country accumulating a huge debt both externally and internally. The citizens will only be able to accept the pain of the TSP after these concerns are addressed. Government must lead from the front. The citizens must be made aware of the spending cuts government is committing to as articulated in the TSP. Once the citizens are aware of these commitments government must implement them in a transparent way. If government is implementing a new vehicle policy to cut spending, it must be clear how much money this will save. The citizens must know what savings will occur as a result of reducing embassies. Most important is the restructuring of the Civil Service; an essential spending cut that will impact the lives of many families across the country. For both political and economic stability this action must be handled with great care.
It is critical to realise that in as much as the implementation of the TSP is a nuts and bolts issue, its success will depend on it being treated as a hearts and minds issue as well. There is a need to build trust between government and citizens across the nation.
There is a need to restore confidence in the government’s ability to deliver on its mandate. This can only be done through communicating the TSP in such a way that those in the furthest reaches of the country are aware of the vision it seeks to achieve.
The plan, its intent and the milestones reached must be articulated in such a way that every Zimbabwean understands what they are working towards.
At this point very few people understand what is happening to the economy and will respond in ways that exacerbate their plight. A lack of information means that those who know a great deal and those who know very little will fill the gap according to how they see things leading to speculation and panic. It may be prudent for the Finance Ministry to partner closely with the Information Ministry to design a robust communication plan to accompany these economic reforms. Two years is a long period to be in the dark, Zimbabweans need to understand why their cow needed to be pushed off the cliff and must be inspired to rebuild their lives and the country.
