Political violence mars growth
LIVINGSTONE MARUFU
Zimbabwe faces an uncertain future amid indications that a polarised political landscape will fuel violent and highly disputed polls that deter economic growth, Business Times can report.
The threat of violence comes as an opposition Citizens Coalition for Change activist was killed after suspected Zanu PF youths disrupted the opposition rally in Kwekwe on Sunday.
In its latest report, research firm Morgan & Co said politics will take centre stage as Zimbabwe heads for elections and the biggest casualty will be the economy.
The research firm there is a 70% probability of violence.
“Political violence has always been an issue over the years with 2018 marred by post- election violence which claimed over six people and there was no justice done to the soldiers who gunned down civilians,” it said.
“We contend that it is a year in which politics will have a strong impact on the economic direction of the country as we approach an electioneering period. As the jostle for power plays on, most Zimbabweans have yearned for some form of economic and political stability for many years now,” Morgan & Co said.
The research firm said the political environment has not changed while the international isolation, the uncompetitiveness, corruption and colossal debt overhang of over US$13bn remain.
“Yet as events unfold it is clear each day that the only thing that remains stable is instability and the era of predictable unpredictability is not going away.”
Zimbabwe has been in economic doldrums for a long time and to fully understand how deep the economic constraints are, there is a need to have a look at the country’s economic history.
Zimbabwe has lost an estimated 50% of its Gross Domestic Product between 1999 and 2008, a period which became known as “the lost decade”.
The Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce CEO Christopher Mugaga told Business Times that the prevailing macroeconomic outlook presents a great risk going into 2022 as operating in an unpredictable policy landscape requires knowledge of the state of both the micro and macroeconomic fundamentals across all sectors.
“Regarding expectations for 2022, the situation is to the contrary with slightly more companies being pessimistic. The overall business confidence index for the country was measured as 8,6 on a scale of -100 to +100, indicating a cautious optimism. Uncertainty about the future of the Covid-19 pandemic and the impending campaign season ahead of the 2023 general elections were pointed out as the main reasons behind the scepticism,” Mugaga said.
President Mnangagwa’s administration has been preaching reforms to lure foreign investors required to reboot the economy.
But analysts are worried populism will be preferred to fiscal prudence as the country heads towards the elections.
