Lessons from the 2018 harmonised elections: An opinion
Taurai Mangudhla
When results of the tightly contested presidential race in Zimbabwe’s 2018 harmonised elections were announced late Thursday night, citizens took them differently.
Zanu PF’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa defended the throne with 50,8 percent ahead of MDC Alliance’s Nelson Chamisa who garnered 44,3 percent. The two were only separated by 6,5 percentage points of the poll or 313 000 votes.
MDC Alliance disputed the results before they had been announced. Starting with threats to boycott the election unless certain demands are met, then eventually taking part in a race which they eventually describe as flawed, Chamisa clearly learnt from the late Morgan Tsvangirai’s choreographer.,
In the same way, the then secretary general of the MDC-T Tendai Biti in March 20008 and August 2013 announced results ahead of the official electoral body ZEC, Biti pulled the same stunt just a day after the polls of 2018.
Based on the MDC agent network and its own tabulations, Biti has consistently tried to make the world believe, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) had stolen results before they were announced.
Whatever the beliefs of many, it is interesting how the House of Assembly results have not been spoken about as an area of contestation. Nonetheless, there are few lessons any voters, political party or aspiring politician should know about Zimbabwe.
UNITY PAYS
Zanu PF and MDC Alliance approached the elections mired with divisions within their file and rank. The MDC lost Thokozani Khupe who was to get 0,9 percent of the presidential vote and fielded two candidates in 14 constituencies, splitting the vote. In some cases—Goromonzi West and Bulawayo South—the MDC Alliance candidates’ votes could have beaten the Zanu PF candidate if combined. It doesn’t always follow, however, that choosing a single candidate could pool together the Alliance votes.
The same goes for Zanu PF which paid the price of disgruntled members who felt left out after the party was restructured late 2017. It is so bad for Zanu PF to a point some elements are alleging a “bhora musango” operation took place. This explains why in some cases a Zanu PF candidate got more votes than the party’s presidential candidate.
Both parties have also been accused of imposing candidates, further weakening their position. It’s just easier to run with a popular candidate who stands a better chance and remains more likely to bring most votes for the presidential candidate.
THE RURAL VOTE IS KEY
Statistics show that two thirds of Zimbabwe’s population lives in the rural area. This therefore means that’s where the majority of the voters are hence the need to set your priorities right if you want to win a national election. Unlike urbanites, who have interacted with the opposition movement since its formation and have been largely converted by the gospel that Zanu PF is filthy; the rural citizen actually looks at what is obtaining on the ground.
They have benefited from the land reform programme and are earning a living from farming, especially tobacco production where 114 000 registered growers for the 2017/18 are largely communal farmers. They are beneficiaries of small-scale gold mining where close to 8 000 small scale producers are now competing with primary producers.
They have benefited from government agricultural input schemes and saw a number of disadvantaged children in their community get tertiary education under Government support.
Instead of voting for a promised land, they are voting for reality. They look at where they stand and what benefit they have, they simply want to protect the gains of empowerment and identify with such a campaign message.
THE MANICALAND FACTOR
An analysis of the election results starting from 2002 when the MDC T was at its peak shows that Manicaland Province is not a given for either parties.
Voters in the province shift and are difficult to predict.
Some have tried to reduce it to an ethnic quality, but whatever it is Manicaland is a tough province.
Based on numbers that attend rallies, a candidate can be fooled to believe victory is certain in the province, but come election day, the votes tell a different story.
They have no permanent home as a province, it appears, and will shift based on the prevailing situation.
In 2002, there was a tie at 48 percent, each party with about 172 000 votes on the presidential race. In 2008, Zanu PF lost the Presidential race with 141 592 votes to the MDC T with 211 589. Come 2013, the table turned. Zanu PF won with 258 026 votes while the MDC-T had 180 000. Now, the province remained critical, Zanu PF lost, but with a narrow margin. Zanu secured 292 938 votes while the MDC Alliance had 296 429 in the Presidential race.
SIZE, BUDGETS, FAME IS NOT EVERYTHING
It is interesting how little known Joseph Busha of FreeZim Congress got 0,4 percent in the election. Most of the people in Zimbabwe do not even know him, but he got 17 566 votes. This is by far more that the 12 878 votes Joice Mujuru got. Whatever he did, both major formations must take lessons and get their house in order come 2023. In fact smaller names, all had below 1 percent of the votes but accounted for a combined 6,5 percent. If they got an extra 1 percent of the vote combined, it could have resulted in a run off, that’s just how critical the smaller candidates were, of course led by Khupe and Busha.
GROWING YOUR SUPPORT PAYS
First, one must capitalise on the support they have, ensure they keep it at all costs. This is not to say you limit yourself to one constituency. To win the national vote for President, one must first capitalise on their strengths. In the case of Zanu PF they did capitalise on the rural backing and exploited it to the fullest while pushing into urban areas.
In areas they were weak, Zanu PF gained some ground. That’s why they had 100% of the seats in Mashonaland Central and grew their seats in Harare, traditionally an MDC territory.
This election had so many first time voters. Their behaviour would only be seen after the election. It was difficult to predict and fortunately, for Zanu PF, new voters were in their favour.
VOTERS CAN BELIEVE ANYTHING
Voters were told the ballot paper is designed in a way that ensures ink moves from anywhere to a ZANU PF vote. This sounded ridiculous, but people believed it to a point they preferred using their own ink to vote. This is good news for a political party because it’s very clear voters can believe anything. That is why they believe Chamisa’s argument the election was stolen, even before results came out.
What some people don’t realise is that Chamisa is like some of the Zanu PF politicians he so much likes to attack, has been a career politician.
Even when Tsvangirai lost, Chamisa has been in Parliament.
This time, he is out there in the cold and has to wait for another five years.
To remain relevant for at least three years before launching another campaign, if he survives all sorts of threats including a likely split of the Alliance after an election defeat as was the case in 2013, Chamisa has started by disputing the result.
His colleagues like Biti will be in Parliament, pushing their brands.
Like Eddie Cross said, the chances of Chamisa having a real case which stands in a court of law are next to none.
It is time to watch into the future, those who lost better luck next time and the winning team should just deliver on its promises.