LIVINGSTONE MARUFU
Zimbabwe’s business sector has warned that an introduction of a hard lockdown will suffocate the economy amid fears the recent spike in new infections would force the government to opt for the route to contain the spread of the Covid-19 virus.
The economy is grappling with foreign currency challenges, erratic power supply and fuel shortages.
But, the spike in new Covid-19 cases has raised fears the government would be forced to toughen measures amid reports that 28,904 new cases were recorded last week alone up from 5,055 cases in the previous week with the last genomic sequencing linking all the cases to the Omicron variant.
Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce chief executive officer Christopher Mugaga told Business Times that total lockdown will result in more business closures.
“On Covid-19 pandemic, industry is in agreement that the economy can no longer afford hard lockdowns regardless of an imminent fourth wave which we expect to last until the first quarter of 2022,” Mugaga said.
He said the solution lies in adhering to Covid-19 regulations and achieving national herd immunity of at least 45%.
Over 40% of Zimbabwe’s population is under 15 years, making a 45% vaccination rate an impressive number by the country’s standards, Mugaga said.
Experts say economic activity was expected to boom in the last quarter of 2021 with an anticipated recovery on the backdrop of softening of the Covid-19 containment measures.
Mugaga said the projected economic growth rate of 7.8% for this year is under threat and pandemic will have a bearing on the projected growth of 5.5% next year.
“We have already failed to reach our inflation targets, the figures recently revised upwards in the 2022 National Budget. Going forward, we strongly believe that decisions on locking down the economy should be more consultative and not remain the preserve of the central government,” Mugaga said.
There is a need for the government and the private sector to exchange notes to ensure the survival of the economy, he said.
Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe CEO Isaac Kwesu said total lockdown would affect the mining sector.
“In the past lockdowns, the mining sector was left to operate though on a limited capacity. However, there is need for the government to put relaxed rules to help the economy to improve to compensate for the lost time,” Kwesu said, adding that the mining industry sector intertwines with other sectors and “restrictions will disrupt supply chains”.
“As mining we are advocating the economy to continue operating as long as people observe World Health Organisation regulations and Health Ministry regulations.”
Confederation of Zimbabwe Industry president Kurai Matsheza said the economy should be left to operate even under tight regulations.
“Zimbabwe cannot afford total lockdown as all the gains of the past year will be affected with restrictions as most consumers will not be allowed to move to buy goods of their choice. The government can look for other alternatives of controlling the pandemic but strict lockdown is certainly out of the question,” Matsheza said.
He said there is a need for consultation when authorities put in place restrictive measures to find a common ground for the government and business.
Experts believe the country’s responses to the pandemic should speak to the unique local conditions and aspirations, lest lockdown will reverse the gains in economic recovery registered to date.
Mugaga said the international ‘best practices’ regarding the fight against the pandemic should not be adopted ‘as is’ but should be subjected to scrutiny and adapted to the local context.
Confederation of Zimbabwe Retailers president Denford Mutashu said the authorities should strike a balance between lockdown and opening up the economy.
“The business should remain open as some businesses have borrowed money to stock up for the festive season to pay later. With a total lockdown a repayment will not be possible,” Mutashu said.
He said the government should push the vaccination drive as well as closely monitor the developments of the new variant.
A recent survey by the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce showed that more companies consider 2021 to be a better year than 2020.
However, the bulk are pessimistic about 2022.
The overall business confidence index for the country was measured as 8.6 on a scale of -100 to +100, indicating a cautious optimism.
“Uncertainty about the future of the Covid-19 pandemic and the impending campaign season ahead of the 2023 general elections were pointed out as the main reasons behind the skepticism,” Mugaga said.
Most companies on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange are pessimistic about the future as they believe that another lockdown could strife their operations resulting in downsizing or drop in capacity utilisation.
Their best bet on the increased vaccination drive to enable the economy to operate despite the ravaging pandemic.
