Zim’s 2030 prosperity goal crumbling-Economists

SAMANTHA MADE

Zimbabwe’s ability to achieve upper-middle-income economy status by 2030 is in serious doubt, largely due to persistent economic challenges—particularly inflation, liquidity crunch and exchange rate instability, among many other problems, multiple economists have warned.

They argue that the National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1) has failed to achieve its key economic goals and is not delivering the transformation needed.

Low and stable inflation, along with a stable exchange rate, were core targets of NDS1, a five-year plan introduced in 2020 to drive economic growth.

However, Farai Mutambanengwe , the CEO of the Small to Medium Enterprises Association of Zimbabwe, who is also an economist, argues that these goals remain elusive, despite brief periods of stability.

“The target of achieving low and stable inflation has not been met,” Mutambanengwe said.

“It won’t be possible without a market-driven exchange rate. Introducing such a system will make the ZiG currency more functional and increase local transactions conducted in the domestic currency.”

Beyond currency reforms, Mutambanengwe stressed that corruption is a major obstacle, draining billions from the economy.

 “Addressing corruption is critical—only then can we see real economic growth that moves us closer to the 2030 goal,” he said.

Misheck Ugaro, vice president of the Zimbabwe Economics Society, offered a mixed assessment of NDS1’s progress. While acknowledging some success, he noted setbacks due to El Niño-induced droughts.

“Since the launch of the ZiG in 2024, there has been only one devaluation, which occurred in August. That’s a positive sign of economic stabilization,” Ugaro said.

However, he warned that Zimbabwe’s average growth rate of around 5% falls below the World Bank’s recommended threshold to achieve upper-middle-income status.

Ugaro also criticized NDS1’s overall effectiveness, stating that while there was ‘temporary’ stability it is not good enough to drive the country to its 2030 target.

“Economic growth must be felt by everyone, and right now, that is not the case,” he said.

Another economist Vince Musewe pointed to a long-standing issue that is poor implementation.

“Since 1980, Zimbabwe has produced about 16 economic blueprints, but has consistently failed to implement, evaluate, and learn from them,” he said.

Despite the concerns, some analysts see promise.

Economic analyst Pascal Mandeya highlighted improvements in agriculture, mining, and infrastructure development as indicators of progress.

However, he cautioned that exchange rate stability remains a key challenge.

“Without import suppression, exchange rate stability will remain out of reach,” Mandeya said, advocating for a stronger local content policy and import substitution measures to protect domestic industries.

While NDS1 has laid a foundation for economic growth, it has not been effective enough to achieve its goals. With only five years left until 2030, doubts remain over whether Zimbabwe can overcome its structural challenges in time to reach upper-middle-income status.