ZIMRA eyes ambitious US$9.2bn revenue target

LIVINGSTONE MARUFU

Zimbabwe Revenue Authority (ZIMRA) is targeting US$9.2 bn in revenue collections for 2026, a 17% increase over this year’s projected US$7.57 bn.

ZIMRA board chairman Antony Mandiwanza insists the goal is achievable, citing reforms that are formalising the economy and expanding the tax base.

“Beyond the magnitude of this figure, what is important to the Board is the quality and sustainability of the revenue base — a base that is broader, more diversified and less dependent on a few sectors,” Mandiwanza said. “Looking ahead, ZIMRA’s medium-term projections — including the US$9.2 billion envisaged for 2026 and the longer-term revenue path towards 2030 — are aligned to the country’s growth aspirations under Vision 2030 and NDS 1 and 2. These are not just ‘big numbers’; they reflect an economy that is formalising, growing and becoming more competitive.”

He added that work is ongoing both on Treasury and ZIMRA’s side to boost compliance. “While the Minister of Finance continues to review the tax regime to enhance the ease of doing business, the Board is equally focused on ZIMRA’s side of the bargain: simplifying processes, reducing compliance costs, embracing technology and nurturing a culture of partnership rather than confrontation,” Mandiwanza said.

Despite ZIMRA’s confidence, analysts remain cautious.

Many warn that the informalised economy, shrinking tax base, and closure of key companies make such an ambitious target difficult to achieve. Economists argue that reforms, though critical, were implemented too late to save firms.

“The target is ambitious as companies like OK Zimbabwe are still on the downward trend despite efforts being made,” said an investment analyst on condition of anonymity. “There are many firms that were heavily affected by these taxes and difficult operating environment, hence it will take years to recover. So to expect an ambitious target like that at a time these firms are still recovering and some are still starting to comply will not be advisable.”

Investment analyst Tafara Mtutu noted that ZIMRA’s system upgrades have eased compliance, but success depends on formalising the informal economy. “Reducing taxes alone will not be enough because from the informal market’s perspective, zero taxes is still better than paying a lower tax,” Mtutu said. “In my opinion, they could be more successful if they complemented their effort with an incentive-based framework.”

Economist Enoch Rukarwa stressed the long-term nature of reform benefits. “We do acknowledge the government’s efforts in attempting to formalise the informal sector but when you go on the ground you find that there’s still a long way to go. The benefits we may not see in the short term but they will eventually trickle in the long haul. However, we continue to encourage the government to maintain consistency in the push for formalisation and creating an enabling environment that creates value for the informal sector that wants to formalise,” he said.

Rukarwa added that while reforms are underway across sectors like transport, the US$2 billion increase may not come from the informal sector alone. “To say the informal sector’s contribution is significant might not be a fair representation on the ground, especially when you look at the economy from an overall perspective,” he said.

Economist Titus Mukove expressed cautious optimism, aligning with ZIMRA that the targets are achievable with proper incentives. “The figures are not very speculative; they are achievable given that certain reforms are being taken by the government to support the ease of doing business. We have seen the reforms being proposed for the tourism and retail sectors. In the retail sector, they’re compressing the licences required for one to register as a legitimate outlet. That will increase compliance as the authorities are taking deliberate measures to ease doing business. That will incentivise the informal players to formalise,” Mukove said.

“Yes, the businesses were closing, but with these incentives, an increase in revenue collections is inevitable. If the 71% informal economy players are convinced to register, the figures are achievable. Efforts are being taken, and I am confident that this will start bearing fruit in the short to medium term,” he added.

Deputy Minister of Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion David Mnangagwa framed tax compliance as both a civic duty and moral commitment. “Zimbabwe’s Vision 2030 embodies these ideals — a self-reliant, competitive and prosperous nation. Each compliant taxpayer is a partner in this bold national mission. The Ministry of Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion continues to lead the Tax Reform and Modernisation Agenda, ensuring our fiscal policies are responsive to local realities, aligned with regional obligations and consistent with global best practices. Our goal is clear: to develop and sustain a tax system that is efficient, transparent and supportive of business growth and national prosperity,” Mnangagwa said.

He warned that evasion and corruption, however small, deprive citizens of essential services. “Every act of smuggling, evasion, or corruption — big or small — steals from children, communities, and the nation’s future. Undeclared containers, smuggled goods, unissued receipts, or falsified returns deprive hospitals of medicine, schools of books, and communities of clean water and infrastructure,” Mnangagwa stated.