Zim faces food shortages
LIVINGSTONE MARUFU
Zimbabwe faces food shortages in the months ahead due to supply chain disruptions triggered by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and looming drought, analysts and farmers unions have warned, as they push the government to kick-start the importation of grain.
Zimbabwe imports maize and wheat from Ukraine and gas and petroleum products from Russia.
With no signs of the war between the two countries ending soon, Zimbabwe is likely to suffer from these knock- on effects, according to economist Gift Mugano.
“Ukraine is one of the biggest exporters of maize and wheat which we import as Zimbabwe and now we have a drought. Therefore, we are at the mercy of food shortages and prices,” Mugano told Business Times, adding “Russia also has a significant share of the country’s wheat that comes from Russia thereby affecting bread supplies and prices in the country”.
He said Zimbabwe had serious fertiliser shortages during the 2021/2022 summer cropping season as over 67% of the country’s top dressing fertiliser comes from Russia.
“We are going to have serious challenges and a rise in inflation going forward, with fuel and gas challenges going to bite us hard in the coming months as the fuel value chain effects could worsen our economic woes.”
Mugano expects the annual inflation to hit 120% by June 2022 from the 66.1% reported in February.
The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries president, Kurai Matsheza said the supply chain disruptions might trigger shortages.
“Knowing the problems that are at hand, there will be definite challenges on the food supply side due to the difficulties involved in the importation of raw materials.
“But there is always an opportunity for the local industry to step up and begin producing locally with raw material being sourced in nearby countries,” Matsheza said.
There are fears that manufacturing industry capacity utilisation could go down to 35% due to drought and adverse impact of Russia-Ukraine war, volatile exchange rate, forex challenges and power cuts.
Industry requires about US$2bn fresh capital to retool. There is also a need to address high taxes to make the sector more competitive.
Government, Matsheza said, should address the potential food shortages as the restive population could cause an unsustainable situation in the country that already has deepening problems.
“The government has to act to avert potential food problems as the situation is not healthy ahead of the elections where the environment is potentially explosive,” he said.
The dry spell has raised fears of a drought.
It is estimated that half the population could be food insecure by June with farmers unions calling on the government to begin maize imports.
Government has since lifted the ban imposed on maize imports due to increased demand for the commodity.
Zimbabwe Commercial Farmers Union president Shadreck Makombe told Business Times that maize imports should start now given the “current state of our fields” as the number of people who need grain could be “bigger than we think”.
“There will be serious competition for maize import in Brazil and other countries as most African countries were hit by serious dry spells in the current summer cropping season therefore instead of leaving the importation to the companies, the government should start importing now,” Makombe said.
Zimbabwe Farmers Union secretary general Paul Zakariya said there was need to secure grain.
“We have many countries in Africa who are in worse positions than us in terms of the harvest therefore getting maize outside the continent will be hard and expensive in the near future therefore there is a need to secure it now,” he said.
According to the first crop and livestock assessment report, the total area planted with maize decreased by 1% to 1 903 669 ha in 2021/22 from 1 920 541 hectares in the 2020/21 season.
Of the 1 903 669ha under maize, 595 368ha (31%) had been planted by the end of November 2021, 1 037 092ha (54%) was planted in December 2021 and 288 081ha (15%) was planted in January 2022.
Recently, the government said no one will die of hunger but experts say, people will starve if the situation is not handled well.
The area planted under maize for Pfumvudza/ Intwasa was 342 860ha which is 18% of the total area planted.
“The early planted November and early December crop had poor crop establishment due to a dry spell that occurred until the last dekad of December and hence had a poor crop stand. This crop is now mostly at the late reproductive stage and is the most affected by the dry spell,” reads part of the report.
“The January crop was still at early to late vegetative stage due to late onset of the season and the crop condition was generally fair to poor because of an on-going dry spell that has lasted for most of the month of February in most parts of the country.”
The report highlighted the season was very poor by all standards as early crop was affected at the maturity level with late crop affected at the vegetative stage.
“Nitrogen deficiency was worsened by late delivery of top dressing under the major input support programs as well as its unavailability on the open market. Where it was available, the prices were exorbitant and out of reach for most of the farmers.
“Major farm management operations such as mechanical and chemical weed control, pest control and application of top dressing was hampered by extreme weather events such as the wet spell that lasted from the last dekad of December to mid-January as well as the tropical storm, Ana that occurred in the last dekad January and the dry spell that occurred in February. This worsened the crop condition,” the report said.
The 2021/2022 season was marked by a false start to the season in some areas of the country, late onset of the season in others followed by an unevenly distributed rainfall pattern both in space and time.
The Presidential Input Scheme supplied inputs for the smallholder farmers under the Pfumvudza/ Intwasa programme while the National Enhanced Agriculture Productivity Scheme provided support for large scale farmers.
Contract farming from the private sector also provided inputs
oing forward, with fuel and gas challenges going to bite us hard in the coming months as the fuel value chain effects could worsen our economic woes.”
Mugano expects the annual inflation to hit 120% by June 2022 from the 66.1% reported in February.
The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries president, Kurai Matsheza said the supply chain disruptions might trigger shortages.
“Knowing the problems that are at hand, there will be definite challenges on the food supply side due to the difficulties involved in the importation of raw materials.
“But there is always an opportunity for the local industry to step up and begin producing locally with raw material being sourced in nearby countries,” Matsheza said.
There are fears that manufacturing industry capacity utilisation could go down to 35% due to drought and adverse impact of Russia-Ukraine war, volatile exchange rate, forex challenges and power cuts.
Industry requires about US$2bn fresh capital to retool. There is also a need to address high taxes to make the sector more competitive.
Government, Matsheza said, should address the potential food shortages as the restive population could cause an unsustainable situation in the country that already has deepening problems.
“The government has to act to avert potential food problems as the situation is not healthy ahead of the elections where the environment is potentially explosive,” he said.
The dry spell has raised fears of a drought.
It is estimated that half the population could be food insecure by June with farmers unions calling on the government to begin maize imports.
Government has since lifted the ban imposed on maize imports due to increased demand for the commodity.
Zimbabwe Commercial Farmers Union president Shadreck Makombe told Business Times that maize imports should start now given the “current state of our fields” as the number of people who need grain could be “bigger than we think”.
“There will be serious competition for maize import in Brazil and other countries as most African countries were hit by serious dry spells in the current summer cropping season therefore instead of leaving the importation to the companies, the government should start importing now,” Makombe said.
Zimbabwe Farmers Union secretary general Paul Zakariya said there was need to secure grain.
“We have many countries in Africa who are in worse positions than us in terms of the harvest therefore getting maize outside the continent will be hard and expensive in the near future therefore there is a need to secure it now,” he said.
According to the first crop and livestock assessment report, the total area planted with maize decreased by 1% to 1 903 669 ha in 2021/22 from 1 920 541 ha in the 2020/21 season.
Of the 1 903 669 ha under maize, 595 368 ha (31%) had been planted by the end of November 2021, 1 037 092 ha (54%) was planted in December 2021 and 288 081ha (15%) was planted in January 2022.
Recently, the government said no one will die of hunger but experts say, people will starve if the situation is not handled well.
The area planted under maize for Pfumvudza/ Intwasa was 342 860 ha which is 18% of the total area planted.
“The early planted November and early December crop had poor crop establishment due to a dry spell that occurred until the last dekad of December and hence had a poor crop stand. This crop is now mostly at the late reproductive stage and is the most affected by the dry spell,” reads part of the report.
“The January crop was still at early to late vegetative stage due to late onset of the season and the crop condition was generally fair to poor because of an on-going dry spell that has lasted for most of the month of February in most parts of the country.”
The report highlighted the season was very poor by all standards as early crop was affected at the maturity level with late crop affected at the vegetative stage.
“Nitrogen deficiency was worsened by late delivery of top dressing under the major input support programmes as well as its unavailability on the open market. Where it was available, the prices were exorbitant and out of reach for most of the farmers.
“Major farm management operations such as mechanical and chemical weed control, pest control and application of top dressing was hampered by extreme weather events such as the wet spell that lasted from the last dekad of December to mid-January as well as the tropical storm, Ana, that occurred in the last dekad January and the dry spell that occurred in February. This worsened the crop condition,” the report said.
The 2021/2022 season was marked by a false start to the season in some areas of the country, late onset of the season in others followed by an unevenly distributed rainfall pattern both in space and time.
The Presidential Input Scheme supplied inputs for the smallholder farmers under the Pfumvudza/ Intwasa programme while the National Enhanced Agriculture Productivity Scheme provided support for large scale farmers.
