We must cement hard -won macroeconomic stability

With annual inflation in the Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) currency falling to 4.1% in January 2026, the economy’s lowest in nearly three decades, the country has for the first time in memory entered a period of relative macroeconomic calm.

This is more than just a statistical milestone, it signals that disciplined policy interventions, anchored by the ZiG and supported by coordinated fiscal and monetary measures, can restore confidence in an economy long battered by hyperinflation, currency volatility, and policy uncertainty.

The figures speak for themselves. From a peak of 95.8% in July 2025, ZiG inflation has plummeted into single digits, while US dollar inflation has remained modest at 1%. This broad-based disinflation is not accidental. It reflects tight monetary policy, improved fiscal discipline, and a commitment by authorities to maintain the sanctity of reserves and the credibility of the central bank.

The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) has sustained a cautious yet decisive stance, keeping interest rates positive in real terms, an essential precondition for mobilising savings, restoring investment confidence, and stabilising the financial system.

Yet, while the macroeconomic indicators are promising, the real test lies ahead, that is consolidating these gains.

Zimbabwe has experienced periods of stability only to see them unravel due to policy slippages, deficit monetisation, and inconsistent governance. Today’s opportunity is different because the tools and structures—ZiG, credible monetary policy, fiscal alignment, and reserve coverage—are firmly in place.

But the path forward demands vigilance, resolve, and structural reform.

Economic growth prospects are bright, with forecasts pointing to at least 5% expansion in 2026.

Robust mineral output, strong agricultural performance, and increased investment across sectors underpin this optimism.

Yet, structural vulnerabilities remain. The formal retail sector faces distress, porous borders erode competitiveness, and liquidity constraints in the banking sector limit credit creation. If these challenges are not addressed, gains in price stability and investor confidence risk being undermined.

Experts rightly caution that fiscal discipline must remain non-negotiable and legally entrenched. Quasi-fiscal operations, deficit monetisation, and hasty policy shifts would threaten the delicate equilibrium achieved.

Monetary policy, too, must remain data-driven, restrictive when necessary, and guided by market-based instruments rather than administrative interventions.

In short, the authorities cannot afford to rest on laurels or be lulled into complacency by a brief spell of stability.

At the same time, the current window of macroeconomic calm presents an unparalleled opportunity to deepen structural reforms.

Value addition, localisation of production, and beneficiation of key sectors such as gold and tobacco can consolidate foreign exchange earnings and reduce import-driven inflation.

Investment in productive capacity, coupled with predictable and transparent policy, will anchor long-term growth and embed confidence among businesses, households, and international investors.

Zimbabwe’s current position demonstrates that disciplined policy, anchored by credible institutions, can steer even a historically fragile economy toward stability.

As 2026 unfolds, policymakers have the chance to transform hope into lasting reality.