The cost of inaction: Why Africa’s green transition cannot wait

By Richard Ndebele

Africa is running out of time to treat sustainability as a side conversation.

The evidence is no longer abstract. Climate-linked disasters are eroding national budgets, displacing communities and deepening fiscal fragility.

The African Development Bank estimates that climate change is already costing African economies up to 15 percent of GDP growth each year in the most exposed countries. The floods that wash away roads in Mozambique, the droughts that devastate Zimbabwe’s farms, and the cyclones that destroy livelihoods in Madagascar are no longer occasional shocks — they have become the new cost of doing business on an unprepared continent.

The price of delay

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that Africa is warming faster than the global average, threatening agriculture, water security and public health. Each drought or flood reverses years of progress. Governments are forced to divert limited resources from development to disaster recovery. Budgets collapse, debts rise and inflation worsens.

In short, the status quo is the most expensive policy Africa can afford. The longer the continent delays climate adaptation, the higher the eventual economic and social bill.

The opportunity we are missing

Yet amid these losses lies extraordinary opportunity. Africa holds 60 percent of the world’s best solar resources but produces barely 1 percent of global solar power, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The continent is also rich in transition minerals such as lithium, cobalt, manganese and platinum — the same resources powering the world’s electric vehicles and renewable-energy storage systems.

However, the absence of strategic frameworks means most of these minerals still leave Africa as raw exports. The continent then imports finished batteries and green technologies at a premium. Acting late means exporting raw potential and importing finished sustainability.

The green transition is not just about energy — it’s about how Africa industrialises. Renewable power, sustainable agriculture and circular-economy models could redefine the continent’s competitiveness. The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) projects that green industrialisation could create millions of jobs if governments align mining, manufacturing and trade policies with low-carbon targets.

Africa’s late development stage can even become an advantage. Unlike developed economies stuck with high-emission infrastructure, Africa can build green from the start — avoiding the costly retrofits others are now struggling with.

Governance as the game-changer

Strong governance is the engine room of sustainability. Without it, even the best climate strategies remain on paper. Regulators, professional bodies and corporations must embed environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles into strategy, risk management and financial reporting.

At the Chartered Governance and Accountancy Institute in Zimbabwe (CGI Zimbabwe), sustainability is being integrated through education, ESG frameworks and partnerships with the Pan African Federation of Accountants (PAFA) and The ESG Exchange. PAFA’s Sustainability Centre of Excellence is building capacity across the continent to help accountants, auditors and boards translate sustainability standards into measurable results.

Governments, too, must move beyond declarations. Climate risks should be part of every budget, procurement process and infrastructure plan. Public and private sectors must see ESG reporting as a tool for value creation, not compliance.

The transition dividend

Far from being a drain on public coffers, the green transition is an engine for future growth. The African Development Bank projects that Africa’s green-finance market could exceed US$100 billion annually by 2030 if governance and policy reforms accelerate. Green bonds and sustainability-linked loans are already drawing investors who now factor climate performance into their decisions.

The benefits go beyond capital flows. Renewable-energy projects across Kenya, Egypt and South Africa are stabilising power grids, creating jobs and reducing dependence on imported fuel. As the World Economic Forum notes, economies that manage sustainability risks are outperforming those that ignore them.

A moral and economic imperative

Sustainability matters for Africa not as an aspiration but as a survival strategy. It is the difference between crisis management and long-term resilience. The continent’s youth — 70 percent of the population under 30, according to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) — will either inherit a degraded environment or lead a regenerative economy, depending on the choices made today.

The cost of inaction is no longer theoretical. It is visible in every parched field, every flooded township and every budget deficit inflated by climate-recovery spending. Africa must move from debate to deployment. Governments, investors and professionals must align behind one principle: prevention is cheaper than repair.

The longer Africa delays its green transition, the more expensive its future becomes. The continent has the knowledge, partnerships and resources. What remains is the will to act — decisively, collectively and now.

Richard Ndebele is Manager: Technical, Research & Quality Assurance at the Chartered Governance and Accountancy Institute in Zimbabwe (CGI Zimbabwe) and Country Champion for the PAFA Sustainability Centre of Excellence. He writes on governance, sustainability, and public financial management in Africa.
Contact: rndebele@cgizim.org