Stay the Course
Yesterday, Professor Mthuli Ncube reaffirmed that Zimbabwe’s economy is stabilising, thanks to disciplined fiscal and monetary policies and rising exports.
The Finance Minister’s statement underscores the importance of policy consistency as the Treasury accelerates regulatory reforms aimed at reducing business costs, attracting investment, and supporting a projected 5% economic growth in 2026.
The numbers tell a story of cautious optimism. Zimbabwe’s inflation, which peaked at 271.7% in 2023, has moderated dramatically under the ZiG regime, with monthly inflation at –0.4% in October 2025 and annual inflation at 32.7%. Projections suggest it could fall to 22.8% by year-end and reach single digits by 2027. Similarly, the parallel market premium has declined sharply from 130% to 30%, stabilising the currency. These gains reflect the disciplined application of fiscal and monetary levers, including a 35% policy rate, statutory reserve requirements of 30% for demand and call deposits, and 15% for time and savings deposits, coupled with refined open market operations and prudent liquidity management.
However, macroeconomic stability alone does not guarantee sustained prosperity. The Treasury’s 100-Day Accelerator Model, targeting reforms across 12 critical sectors including agriculture, energy, tourism, and manufacturing, signals recognition that structural and regulatory bottlenecks must be dismantled. Early progress in livestock, tourism, retail, and transport is encouraging, yet business leaders warn that implementation remains uneven. As Oswell Binha of the CEO Africa Roundtable notes, despite frequent references to reform through ZIDA and NDS1, “the overall reform trajectory remains painfully slow, fragmented, and largely rhetorical.” Issues such as ambiguous property rights, erratic foreign currency repatriation frameworks, and high compliance costs continue to undermine investor confidence.
The private sector’s response has been a mixture of cautious optimism and calls for accelerated action. The Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC) urges the government to extend early reform gains beyond agriculture to manufacturing, wholesale, and services, emphasizing that the cost of doing business must be reduced to attract investment. The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) advocates bold, systematic deregulation, suggesting a “one deregulation per week” approach, and highlights the role of sustained leadership from the Head of State in maintaining reform momentum, particularly in the face of competitiveness pressures from the AfCFTA.
Concrete milestones, such as the consolidation of eleven local authority licenses into a single unified shop license, removal of redundant bottle store licenses, and capping tourism-related business fees at $500, have been welcomed by the Confederation of Zimbabwe Retailers (CZR). CZR President Dr. Denford Mutashu describes these reforms as a step toward Vision 2030, noting that businesses must reciprocate government efforts by passing on savings through lower prices and better service delivery. Such measures demonstrate that practical, targeted reforms can improve the business environment and support private-sector-led growth.
The key challenge ahead is converting policy credibility into sustained investment and private-sector confidence. Fiscal consolidation and monetary discipline have laid the foundation, but Zimbabwe’s next test lies in effective implementation. The 2026 National Budget must reinforce fiscal restraint while providing clear pathways for growth, investment, and job creation.
Zimbabwe stands at a pivotal moment. The nation has regained macroeconomic stability, and early reform efforts are promising. Staying the course—maintaining fiscal and monetary discipline while accelerating structural reforms—will determine whether Zimbabwe transforms this stability into durable economic growth or leaves the country exposed to cyclical volatility. Consistency, credible execution, and tangible reform outcomes are the pillars upon which Zimbabwe’s economic future will rest.
