Power Crisis: Mthuli Ncube forecasts challenges until 2030

CLOUDINE MATOLA

Zimbabwe’s ongoing electricity crisis is deepening, with power cuts lasting over 12 hours daily, severely impacting industrial productivity and hindering economic growth.

Despite the recent commissioning of Hwange Power Station Units 7 and 8, which offer a glimpse of hope, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube has warned that the electricity shortfall will persist until at least 2030, jeopardizing the country’s economic recovery.

In his 2025 National Budget presentation, Minister Ncube emphasized the growing gap between electricity supply and demand, noting that efforts to ramp up generation will not be enough to meet the nation’s needs in the foreseeable future.

Professor Ncube revealed that while Zimbabwe’s electricity generation is projected to grow by 10.6% in 2025, reaching 10,000 gigawatt-hours (GWh), this will still fall far short of the expected demand of 19,000 GWh. The shortfall of nearly 9,000 GWh is unlikely to be bridged by 2030.

“Although we anticipate growth in electricity generation, the supply deficit will remain significant until at least 2030,” Ncube stated, referencing the added capacity from Hwange Units 7 and 8 and renewable energy projects spearheaded by Independent Power Producers (IPPs). Despite these contributions, the total increase in power generation will be insufficient to meet the growing energy demands of key sectors such as mining, agriculture, and manufacturing.

The effects of Zimbabwe’s electricity crisis are far-reaching, with many businesses forced to scale down or halt operations due to unreliable electricity. Small and medium enterprises (SMEs), which are vital to the economy, have been particularly hard-hit. The mining sector, which is crucial for foreign currency earnings, has seen reduced output, while manufacturing firms face rising costs as they rely on expensive diesel generators. Agriculture, especially irrigation-dependent farming, is also severely impacted by power disruptions.

“The electricity crisis is not only about production; it’s about competitiveness,” Ncube emphasized.

“The high cost of alternative power sources, like diesel generators, inflates production costs, making local products less competitive in regional and international markets.”

To tackle the energy deficit, the government is encouraging private sector investment, particularly in renewable energy.

Professor Ncube highlighted the importance of public-private partnerships to scale up energy production. Solar, wind, and hydroelectric projects are seen as key solutions to diversifying the energy mix and reducing reliance on aging and expensive thermal power plants.

“The government will continue to support IPPs through implementation agreements to ensure financial closure,” Professor Ncube explained.

These initiatives could add over 1,500 MW to the grid in the short to medium term. Large electricity consumers are also being encouraged to invest in their own power generation systems to help ease the strain on the national grid.

Despite these efforts, Zimbabwe’s energy sector continues to face significant challenges.

Aging infrastructure at thermal power plants, such as Hwange, is prone to frequent breakdowns, exacerbating the power supply deficit.

Additionally, the country’s limited financial resources and inability to attract substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) have hindered the development of new energy infrastructure.

Many IPP projects have struggled to reach financial closure due to concerns over Zimbabwe’s economic stability. Investors remain cautious, requiring assurances of policy consistency and a stable operating environment before committing to energy projects.

The power crisis in Zimbabwe is compounded by energy shortages in neighboring countries.

South Africa and Zambia, once key suppliers of surplus electricity, are also experiencing their own energy challenges. As a result, the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) is unable to provide sufficient supplementary power to Zimbabwe, further highlighting the need for domestic solutions.

Experts argue that addressing Zimbabwe’s electricity crisis requires a comprehensive approach, including regulatory reforms, greater incentives for renewable energy projects, and improved financing mechanisms.

If left unaddressed, the continued power shortages could deter investment in key industries, slowing economic growth and exacerbating unemployment.

The ongoing power deficit threatens Zimbabwe’s goal of attaining upper-middle-income status by 2030. Without reliable energy, the economy will struggle to expand, reducing export earnings and hindering job creation.

Zimbabwe’s electricity crisis remains a major barrier to economic growth, with power shortages projected to persist until at least 2030. While projects like Hwange Units 7 and 8 represent progress, they will not be enough to meet the rising demand for energy. A comprehensive strategy that includes increased investment in renewable energy, infrastructure upgrades, and greater private sector participation is essential for overcoming the crisis.

To secure long-term economic growth and competitiveness, the government must prioritize energy security as a core component of its development strategy. Only through sustained efforts and investment can Zimbabwe hope to overcome its electricity challenges and achieve its economic potential.