‘Inflation to cool by October’
‘Inflation to cool by October’
LIVINGSTONE MARUFU
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) expects annual inflation measured in Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) to start cooling by October 2025, crediting tight monetary controls and disciplined policy implementation for the anticipated turnaround.
This projection comes amid a sharp rise in annual ZiG inflation, which climbed to 92.1% in May, up from 85.7% in April 2025.
The central bank warned that inflationary pressures will persist through to September, largely due to a 43% depreciation of the ZiG in the third quarter of 2024. However, authorities believe the worst is behind, as the effects of that shock have already filtered through the economy.
RBZ Governor Dr. John Mushayavanhu reassured the public that the inflation spike is not a reflection of declining purchasing power, but rather a statistical effect from past volatility.
“The current trend in annual inflation is expected to continue up to September 2025 and decline thereafter to align with the current low and stable month-on-month inflation,” Dr. Mushayavanhu said.
“The economy is projected to return to a more stable annual inflation path from the month of October 2025.
Going forward, the ZiG annual inflation is expected to significantly decline to below 30% by December 31, 2025, and further decline towards single digits in the outlook period.”
The central bank has urged businesses and consumers to focus on month-on-month inflation, which better reflects current price movements and consumer reality.
“The rise in year-on-year ZiG inflation in April and May 2025 is primarily due to the base effect stemming from the once-off spike in month-on-month inflation—from 5.8% in September 2024 to 37.2% in October 2024,” Dr. Mushayavanhu explained.
He emphasized that the central bank remains committed to stability.
“The monthly ZiG inflation will remain low and stable as monetary policy remains appropriately tight to balance price stability and economic growth,” he said.
“The central bank remains committed to sustaining the current low and stable monthly inflation, which is necessary to reverse the transitory trend increases in ZiG annual inflation.
The prudent monetary policy management being pursued by the apex bank will engender price, currency, and exchange rate stability and continue to support the positive economic trajectory.”
Month-on-month inflation has remained under 1% for the past three months, a trend the RBZ sees as evidence of successful monetary policy tightening.
ZIMSTAT, the national statistics agency, had initially only published month-on-month ZiG inflation figures due to the absence of a full year’s data after the currency transition from the Zimbabwe dollar (ZWL$) to ZiG.
That changed in April 2025, when ZIMSTAT began reporting year-on-year inflation figures, now that a complete 12-month record of ZiG prices is available.
