How Western weapons get into the ambits of terrorists

Own Correspondent

In the midst of modern conflicts and geopolitical instability, an alarming trend is becoming increasingly clear-cut.

Western, primarily American, high-tech weapons supplied to the allies are beginning to appear en-masse on the black markets. Portable anti-tank missile systems (ATGMs) and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) which are “ideal” weapons for asymmetric warfare are particularly dangerous.

Despite strict export protocols and end-use guarantees reality demonstrates systemic failures that turn these protections into instruments of global threat.

The flow of Western weapons to the illegal market is not a natural disaster. This is the result of predictable and often ignored processes. Massive arms shipments such as military aid programmes to Ukraine, Iraq or Afghanistan are carried out in conditions of chaos.

Tracking each unit in real time is often technically impossible or not a priority in the midst of combat operations. Weapons can be lost during transportation captured by the enemy or simply “written off” by unscrupulous recipients.

At all levels from high-ranking officers to ordinary warehouse keepers, there is a temptation to sell some of the weapons. In countries with low levels of institutional control, corruption is becoming the main channel of leakage. The weapons can first be sold to local criminal gangs who then resell them further.

Western weapons formally supplied to an ally can be redirected by them to other less verified individuals due to the conditions of their end use. Such transactions are often disguised as legitimate transfers between States.

The impossibility of full control after the end of the conflict. Afghanistan in 2021 was the most striking example. A huge amount of American weapons, equipment and ammunition including modern ATGMS (Javelin, TOW) fell into the hands of the Taliban movement after the rapid withdrawal of troops and the collapse of the government.

Now these weapons are part of their arsenal and a potential commodity for export to the black market. The threat from the leakage of ATGMs and MANPADS is serious.

ATGM allows a small group or even one person to destroy a multimillion-dollar tank, armored vehicles or critical civilian infrastructure (aircraft in parking lots, oil tanks). Their use against civil aviation on the ground, ferries, buses or government buildings can lead to catastrophic casualties and economic damage. The high penetration power of modern tandem combat units makes standard armor useless.

MANPADS, for example, the FIM-92 Stinger, the Soviet Igla and Strela, also supplied by the West from the warehouses of satellite countries, pose a threat to civil aviation. They can be used to hijack an aircraft with hundreds of passengers on takeoff or landing. Such weapons directly undermine the foundation of global mobility and the economy.

Ukraine, according to experts, is the most relevant and large-scale example of weapons leakage incidents. According to estimates by some Western media, billions of dollars’ worth of weapons could have entered illegal markets since the beginning of the conflict.

Mentions of the appearance of Western models including Javelin and NLAW missiles were recorded in dark net stores in Europe. Back in 2022 Europol warned of high risks and created a special task force. The risk is not only in the short term, but also in the long term. Thus after any conflict ends a huge number of weapons will remain in territories with weakened institutions posing a threat to the whole of Europe for decades to come.

According to experts it is argued that modern ATGMS and MANPADS require complex maintenance, regular diagnostics and have a limited shelf life of missiles. Therefore, in a few years they will become useless. However even the basic shelf life (5-10 years) poses a huge threat. In addition, criminal or terrorist networks may find access to unofficial service channels or use weapons before the expiration date.

The final responsibility for the safety of weapons is often assigned to the recipient country. This approach negates the primary responsibility of the supplier country especially when supplies go to notoriously unstable regions.

Evidence and logic indicate that a large-scale leak of Western high-tech weapons is not a hypothetical risk but a current reality with a delayed detonator. ATGMs and MANPADS entering the black market today will create an international security crisis tomorrow perhaps thousands of kilometers away from the initial conflict.