Ethanol expansion plan a necessary bet to avert crisis

This week, Government signalled plans to fast-track ethanol production expansion at GreenFuel in Chisumbanje, a move born out of necessity rather than choice.

A geopolitical flare-up in the Middle East has jolted global oil markets, and Zimbabwe is already feeling the tremors. Fuel prices have spiked. Transport costs are surging. Businesses are scrambling. Households are absorbing yet another shock.

The abrupt jump in pump prices, with diesel climbing to US$2.05 per litre and petrol to US$2.10, is not just another routine adjustment. It is a reminder of Zimbabwe’s enduring vulnerability as a net fuel importer, tethered to global markets.

Against this backdrop, Government’s decision to accelerate ethanol production is both timely and necessary.

In fact, it may be one of the few immediately actionable levers available to cushion the economy from an external shock of this magnitude.

The logic is sound.

Blending ethanol into fuel remains one of the rare policy tools capable of delivering both short-term relief and long-term structural benefits. A shift back to an E20 blending ratio from the current E5 could shave as much as US$0.18 off the pump price, a meaningful reprieve in an economy where margins are thin and cost pressures transmit rapidly across sectors.

More importantly, it speaks to a broader strategic imperative: reducing Zimbabwe’s exposure to imported inflation.

Vice President Constantino Chiwenga’s remarks point to an important shift in policy thinking , from reactive firefighting to proactive resilience-building. The emphasis on scaling production, expanding storage capacity, and coordinating with industry players such as Tongaat Hulett reflects an understanding that energy security is not a single intervention, but a system.

And yet, while the direction is commendable, history demands caution.

Zimbabwe’s achilles heel has rarely been the absence of plans. It has been execution.

Ethanol blending is not new.

The country has pursued it before, with mixed results often constrained by seasonal sugarcane output, logistical bottlenecks, and weak coordination across the value chain.

The current limitation to E5 is itself evidence of these structural constraints.

For this latest push to succeed, Government must move beyond announcements and confront the hard realities of implementation.

First, raw material security is critical. Expanding sugarcane production into regions such as Zambezi and Runde is a bold proposition but one that requires significant investment in irrigation infrastructure, land development, and farmer support. Without this, ethanol ambitions will remain hostage to agricultural cycles.

Second, policy consistency is non-negotiable. Investors in ethanol production — and energy infrastructure more broadly — require regulatory certainty. Sudden shifts in blending mandates or pricing frameworks risk undermining confidence at precisely the moment capital mobilisation is most needed.

Third, coordination must move from rhetoric to reality. The call for alignment between Government, GreenFuel, and other industry players is sensible. But coordination failures have long plagued Zimbabwe’s industrial policy. Clear roles, enforceable commitments, and measurable targets will be essential.

Fourth, the fiscal dimension cannot be ignored. Scaling ethanol production, upgrading infrastructure, and supporting outgrower schemes will require sustained financing. In a constrained fiscal environment, Government must ensure that resources are deployed efficiently and transparently.

Ethanol is not a silver bullet. It will not fully shield Zimbabwe from global oil shocks, nor will it eliminate price volatility.

What it can do if executed effectively is soften the blow, reduce the frequency of crises, and buy the economy valuable time to adjust.

In the immediate term, the anxiety gripping consumers and businesses is real and justified. Transport fares are rising. Input costs are climbing. Inflationary pressures are building. The risk of a broader cost-of-living surge is no longer hypothetical; it is already unfolding.

Government’s intervention, therefore, will be judged not just by its intent, but by its speed.

Crises do not wait for procurement cycles, feasibility studies, or bureaucratic alignment.

Any delays in scaling ethanol production, restoring higher blending ratios, or communicating clear timelines could erode the very confidence this policy seeks to rebuild.

Government has made the right bet.

Now it must deliver.